IV is elevated with bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 73.6% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 2.01x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 50% — above sector median
Front/Back 0.98x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 58.1% — normal range
Effective IV 138.4% (ATM 58.1% + spread 40.1% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 58.27% (spread 40.15% + slippage 18.12%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.47 (vega 5.882 / spread 40.15%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +4% (neutral) — Raw: +3%
|OI skew| 31.8% — call-heavy
Vol skew +85.9%, OI skew +31.8% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -33%, ATM: -100%, OTM: +9% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 19% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.3x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.5% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -1.3% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 32% — below sector avg
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 30% — patient
Conviction +4 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 40.1% — wide
OI 14,326 — adequate
Volume 71/day — thin
$2.01 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 81% — much wider than sector
Depth 118.5 contracts (bid:35.5 ask:83.0) — adequate
Avg slippage 18.12% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -1.9% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 74% — seller opportunity
IV kink 8.5pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 582.39 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: FOMC in 5d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +4% @ 53% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.