IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 95.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 0.93x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 89% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.03x — flat
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 110.3% — crisis-level IV
Effective IV 139.3% (ATM 110.3% + spread 14.5% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 22.62% (spread 14.50% + slippage 8.12%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 15.53 (vega 22.515 / spread 14.50%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +23% (bullish) — Raw: +13%
|OI skew| 53.3% — call-heavy
Vol skew +54.9%, OI skew +53.3% — aligned
0-DTE 36%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +11%, ATM: +54%, OTM: +2% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 41% — bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.2x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.4% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +4.1% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 46% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 32% — patient
Conviction +23 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 14.5% — wide
OI 48,978 — adequate
Volume 1,189/day — adequate
$0.72 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 94% — much wider than sector
Depth 107.5 contracts (bid:57.2 ask:50.3) — adequate
Avg slippage 8.12% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +3.4% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 95% — seller opportunity
IV kink 3.8pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 296.25 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: FOMC in 5d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +23% @ 62% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.