AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Options Analysis Report•PERSONAL CREDIT INSTITUTIONS
Market Cap $22.6B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-15$67.57
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +30.6%YTD -8.7%7D +5.6%
Options Vol
21,961
30D
Implied Move
±18.4%
IV Rank
17%
AFRM Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.9
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 76.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.14x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 47% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.99x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 65.8% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 89.4% (ATM 65.8% + spread 11.8% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 18.93% (spread 11.82% + slippage 7.11%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 1.15 (vega 1.361 / spread 11.82%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.0
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -12%, Raw: -6%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -12% (bearish) — Raw: -6%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 8.9% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +45.3%, OI skew +8.9% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 61%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -2%, ATM: -29%, OTM: +3% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 52% — neutral vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.3
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 6.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +9.1% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 62% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 28% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 36% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -12 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.8% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 354,050 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 21,961/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.59 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 71% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 380.8 contracts (bid:178.3 ask:202.5) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.11% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -1.2% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 76% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 2.0pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 3.05 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -12% @ 56% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 58 (ITM 20% + inst 28%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.8
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts5.1
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.2
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call4.4
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.