IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 95.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.16x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 95% — above sector median
Front/Back 0.97x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 112.2% — crisis-level IV
Effective IV 127.5% (ATM 112.2% + spread 7.6% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 12.53% (spread 7.63% + slippage 4.90%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 64.73 (vega 49.389 / spread 7.63%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -6% (neutral) — Raw: -1%
|OI skew| 9.5% — balanced
Vol skew -33.1%, OI skew -9.5% — aligned
0-DTE 36%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +7%, ATM: +9%, OTM: -3% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 85% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.1x avg — normal
Vol/OI 12.3% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +15.9% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 89% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 33% — institutional presence
Aggressive execution 36% — patient
Conviction -6 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 7.6% — wide
OI 898,750 — deep
Volume 110,788/day — active
$0.38 to cross — cheap
5 liquid strikes — good coverage
Sector spread percentile 97% — much wider than sector
Depth 208.0 contracts (bid:110.5 ask:97.5) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.90% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -2.8% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 95% — seller opportunity
IV kink -2.8pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 169.67 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: FOMC in 5d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -6% @ 53% consistency — unclear
Score 63 (ITM 20% + inst 33%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.