IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 77.9% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 2.13x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 75% — above sector median
Front/Back 0.67x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 61.2% — normal range
Effective IV 112.8% (ATM 61.2% + spread 25.8% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 45.15% (spread 25.81% + slippage 19.34%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 9.93 (vega 25.621 / spread 25.81%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +38% (strong bullish) — Raw: +50%
|OI skew| 38.0% — put-heavy
Vol skew -91.7%, OI skew -38.0% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -60%, ATM: +100%, OTM: +73% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 98% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.1x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.5% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +2.9% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 20% — below sector avg
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 33% — patient
Conviction +38 (bullish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 25.8% — wide
OI 4,887 — thin
Volume 24/day — thin
$1.29 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 84% — much wider than sector
Depth 5.7 contracts (bid:3.2 ask:2.5) — thin
Avg slippage 19.34% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -32.7% — contango
IV percentile 78% — seller opportunity
IV kink -34.1pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 43.40 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: FOMC in 7d; CPI in 0d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +38% @ 68% consistency — moderate (bullish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.