IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 96.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 2.62x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 91% — above sector median
Front/Back 0.57x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 126.5% — crisis-level IV
Effective IV 177.3% (ATM 126.5% + spread 25.4% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 29.93% (spread 25.39% + slippage 4.54%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 2.44 (vega 6.201 / spread 25.39%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -14% (bearish) — Raw: -18%
|OI skew| 43.1% — call-heavy
Vol skew +81.9%, OI skew +43.1% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +73%, ATM: +26%, OTM: -30% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 23% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.7x avg — elevated
Vol/OI 1.8% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +0.2% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 61% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 6% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 61% — urgent
Conviction -14 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 25.4% — wide
OI 84,691 — deep
Volume 1,546/day — adequate
$1.27 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 97% — much wider than sector
Depth 82.6 contracts (bid:29.9 ask:52.7) — thin
Avg slippage 4.54% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -42.8% — contango
IV percentile 96% — seller opportunity
IV kink -50.0pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 252.09 — favors income trades
4 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: No earnings detected; FOMC in 5d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -14% @ 57% consistency — unclear
Score 36 (ITM 20% + inst 6%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.