CGThe Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
Options Analysis Report•INVESTMENT ADVICE
Market Cap $16.4B|NASDAQ
● 2026-05-29$45.43
BEARISH
Analysis: 2026-05-28 EOD data
1Y +0.5%YTD -25.4%7D +0.0%
Options Vol
5,253
30D
Implied Move
±12.0%
IV Rank
45%
CG Options Overview
bearish flow with unusual activity. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.1
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 64.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.20x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 81% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.94x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 43.8% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 89.4% (ATM 43.8% + spread 22.8% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 30.74% (spread 22.81% + slippage 7.93%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 1.88 (vega 4.297 / spread 22.81%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
2.3
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -46%, Raw: -58%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -46% (strong bearish) — Raw: -58%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 0.8% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -55.3%, OI skew -0.8% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -80%, ATM: -1%, OTM: -96% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 96% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.2
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 2.2x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.6% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +10.5% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 71% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 95% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 40% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -46 (bearish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.2
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 22.8% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 93,804 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 5,253/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.14 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 84% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 320.3 contracts (bid:246.6 ask:73.7) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.93% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.9
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -5.8% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 65% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -1.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 92.80 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -46% @ 73% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 125 (ITM 20% + inst 95%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls3.9
bullishIV fair, bearish flow
Long Puts5.8
bearishIV fair, bearish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.4
bullishIV fair, bearish flow
Covered Call6.3
bearishIV fair, bearish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.