CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc.
Options Analysis Report•METAL MINING
Market Cap $6.2B|NYSE
● 2026-05-15$10.93
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-05-14 EOD data
1Y +47.1%YTD -19.6%7D -0.8%
Options Vol
21,145
30D
Implied Move
±17.5%
IV Rank
45%
CLF Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.6
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 76.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 70% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.93x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 65.5% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 87.6% (ATM 65.5% + spread 11.1% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 18.64% (spread 11.06% + slippage 7.58%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 2.91 (vega 3.220 / spread 11.06%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.9
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -17%, Raw: -16%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -17% (bearish) — Raw: -16%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 36.9% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +63.0%, OI skew +36.9% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 40%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -6%, ATM: -33%, OTM: -15% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 34% — bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.3
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.4x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 3.0% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +5.2% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 61% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 34% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 53% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -17 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.3
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.1% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 704,470 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 21,145/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.55 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 83% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 415.0 contracts (bid:208.2 ask:206.8) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 7.58% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.3
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -7.3% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 76% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -1.0pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 574.91 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No earnings detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -17% @ 59% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 64 (ITM 20% + inst 34%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.4
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.8
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.6
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.0
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.