ESTCElastic N.V.
Options Analysis Report•SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
Market Cap $6.3B|NYSE
● 2026-06-12$60.35
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-06-11 EOD data
1Y -24.0%YTD -16.8%7D -2.3%
Options Vol
1,062
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
58%
ESTC Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.0
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 81.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.08x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 51% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.09x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 69.5% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 120.4% (ATM 69.5% + spread 25.4% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 55.36% (spread 25.43% + slippage 29.93%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 6.50 (vega 16.518 / spread 25.43%) — acceptable
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.3
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: -5%, Raw: +4%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -5% (neutral) — Raw: +4%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 69.5% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +96.0%, OI skew +69.5% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +67%, ATM: -86%, OTM: +7% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 5% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
2.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.3x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 1.7% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.9% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 35% — below sector avg
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 19% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 86% — highly urgent
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -5 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 25.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 63,599 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 1,062/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.27 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 70% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 115.2 contracts (bid:33.2 ask:82.0) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 29.93% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.2
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks8/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +8.9% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 82% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 16.7pts — event priced
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 476.02 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations4 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)acceptable: No earnings detected; FOMC in 5d
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -5% @ 53% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 49 (ITM 20% + inst 19%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.5
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Long Puts4.6
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.3
bullishIV fair, bullish flow
Covered Call4.5
bearishIV fair, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.