IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 96.4% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 0.95x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 98% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.33x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 123.3% — crisis-level IV
Effective IV 154.4% (ATM 123.3% + spread 15.6% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 22.16% (spread 15.56% + slippage 6.60%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 6.50 (vega 10.117 / spread 15.56%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -14% (bearish) — Raw: -18%
|OI skew| 43.7% — call-heavy
Vol skew +52.2%, OI skew +43.7% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -13%, ATM: -19%, OTM: -18% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 37% — bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 5.1% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -1.3% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 82% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 2% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 39% — patient
Conviction -14 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 15.6% — wide
OI 202,606 — deep
Volume 10,398/day — active
$0.78 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 99% — much wider than sector
Depth 299.4 contracts (bid:187.8 ask:111.6) — adequate
Avg slippage 6.60% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +33.3% — backwardation
IV percentile 96% — seller opportunity
IV kink 30.4pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 386.14 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: No earnings detected; CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -14% @ 57% consistency — unclear
Score 32 (ITM 20% + inst 2%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.