IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 91.9% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.11x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 79% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.06x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 96.6% — crisis-level IV
Effective IV 116.4% (ATM 96.6% + spread 9.9% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 16.70% (spread 9.88% + slippage 6.82%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 29.58 (vega 29.226 / spread 9.88%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +38% (strong bullish) — Raw: +26%
|OI skew| 36.7% — call-heavy
Vol skew +32.6%, OI skew +36.7% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +25%, ATM: +74%, OTM: +14% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 55% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.8x avg — normal
Vol/OI 3.9% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +4.6% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 62% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 52% — patient
Conviction +38 (bullish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 9.9% — wide
OI 24,292 — adequate
Volume 953/day — adequate
$0.49 to cross — cheap
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 87% — much wider than sector
Depth 38.3 contracts (bid:24.9 ask:13.4) — thin
Avg slippage 6.82% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +6.4% — backwardation
IV percentile 92% — seller opportunity
IV kink 7.8pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 253.26 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: No earnings detected; FOMC in 5d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +38% @ 69% consistency — moderate (bullish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.