GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•GENERAL BLDG CONTRACTORS - RESIDENTIAL BLDGS
Market Cap $3.6B|NYSE
● 2026-06-09$26.68
BULLISH
Analysis: 2026-06-08 EOD data
1Y -1.0%YTD +67.5%7D +14.1%
Options Vol
9,122
30D
Implied Move
±15.0%
IV Rank
8%
GEO Options Overview
IV is elevated with bullish flow and unusual activity. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
6.0
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 71.6% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.27x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 69% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.96x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 53.6% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 76.0% (ATM 53.6% + spread 11.2% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 15.53% (spread 11.21% + slippage 4.32%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 6.26 (vega 7.020 / spread 11.21%) — acceptable
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.9
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -17%, Raw: -16%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -17% (bearish) — Raw: -16%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 52.7% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +93.2%, OI skew +52.7% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -6%, ATM: +14%, OTM: -35% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 8% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.0
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 2.9x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.7% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days3 day(s) elevated — sustained
OI Build
≥5%OI change +4.2% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 85% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 43% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 42% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -17 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.2% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 159,745 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 9,122/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.56 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 81% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 754.7 contracts (bid:459.3 ask:295.4) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 4.32% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.3
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -3.5% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 72% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -0.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 552.73 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations4 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: No earnings detected; CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -17% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 73 (ITM 20% + inst 43%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.7
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.1
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.8
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.