HCCWarrior Met Coal, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•BITUMINOUS COAL & LIGNITE MINING
Market Cap $5.2B|NYSE
● 2026-06-09$98.90
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-06-08 EOD data
1Y +104.9%YTD +10.4%7D -10.3%
Options Vol
249
30D
Implied Move
±19.3%
IV Rank
54%
HCC Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.9
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 78.4% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.76x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 74% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.11x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 61.7% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 88.8% (ATM 61.7% + spread 13.5% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 18.73% (spread 13.53% + slippage 5.20%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 15.22 (vega 20.596 / spread 13.53%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.3
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Weak signal (Conviction: -3%, Raw: -0%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -3% (neutral) — Raw: -0%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 6.3% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +18.1%, OI skew -6.3% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -60%, ATM: +8%, OTM: +0% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 68% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
2.3
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks0/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.2x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 1.0% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change -0.4% (5d) — stable
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 37% — below sector avg
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 52% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -3 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
2.8
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks1/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 13.5% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 24,193 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 249/day — thin
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.68 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 84% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 60.900000000000006 contracts (bid:29.8 ask:31.1) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 5.20% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.5
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +11.4% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 78% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 6.8pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 312.54 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: No earnings detected; CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -3% @ 52% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.0
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.8
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.9
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.7
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.