IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 20.5% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.45x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 30% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.98x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 28.3% — normal range
Effective IV 58.2% (ATM 28.3% + spread 14.9% + bias) — good value
Total drag 23.33% (spread 14.95% + slippage 8.38%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.51 (vega 2.260 / spread 14.95%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -32% (strong bearish) — Raw: -15%
|OI skew| 42.3% — put-heavy
Vol skew -27.9%, OI skew -42.3% — aligned
0-DTE 33%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -100%, ATM: -13%, OTM: -7% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 91% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.5x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.5% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +1.6% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 14% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 54% — patient
Conviction -32 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 14.9% — wide
OI 31,999 — adequate
Volume 172/day — thin
$0.75 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 41% — neutral vs sector
Depth 65.5 contracts (bid:24.2 ask:41.3) — thin
Avg slippage 8.38% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -2.0% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 20% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 0.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 4.88 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -32% @ 66% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.