SNOW institutional options flow analysis — multi-leg block trades, dominant direction, and gamma analysis from the public options tape for January 30, 2026. Articles older than 60 days are public; sign in to read flow within the past month, upgrade to AIme Premium for today's unusual options trades without the delay.

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SNOW Unusual Options Activity — 2026-01-30

Institutional flow on 2026-01-30

Multi-leg block trades, dominant direction, and gamma analysis

$10.8M2 trades
Synthetic Short / Risk Reversal

Trade Details

BUY$210 PUT20260918$7.7MSynthetic Short / Risk Reversal
SELL$260 CALL20260918$3.1MSynthetic Short / Risk Reversal

Gamma Analysis

GEX Bias
Bearish
Support
$195
Resistance
$197.5

Full Analysis

SNOW $10.8M Risk Reversal - Institutional Bear Places a Big Bet Against Snowflake Through September!

January 30, 2026 | Unusual Activity Detected

The Quick Take

Someone just dropped $10.8M on a bearish risk reversal on Snowflake - buying $7.7M worth of September $210 puts while simultaneously selling $3.1M in September $260 calls. Both legs hit at 12:01:42 with 3,000 contracts each. The net cost of this structure is roughly $4.6M - and it effectively creates a synthetic short position. This trader is saying: "I think SNOW heads lower over the next 8 months, and I'm willing to cap my upside at $260 to finance heavy downside protection at $210." With the stock at $199.90 and earnings looming on March 4, this is a deliberate, well-funded institutional bearish conviction trade. Translation: A big player sees a lot more downside than upside for Snowflake through September 2026.

Company Overview

Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) is the cloud-native data platform powering enterprise analytics and AI workloads:

  • Market Cap: $68.2 Billion
  • Industry: Software - Prepackaged Software
  • Current Price: ~$197.13
  • Primary Business: Cloud data platform that consolidates data hosted across AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud for centralized analytics and governance. Key products include Snowpark (developer framework), Cortex AI (enterprise AI), and a data sharing marketplace.

The Option Flow Breakdown

The Tape (January 30, 2026 @ 12:01:42):

TimeSymbolSideBuy/SellTypeExpirationPremiumStrikeVolumeOISizeSpotOption Price
12:01:42SNOWMIDBUYPUT $2102026-09-18$7.7M$2103,0003,1002,100$199.90$36.87
12:01:42SNOWMIDSELLCALL $2602026-09-18$3.1M$2603,0003,2002,100$199.90$14.77

What This Actually Means

This is a risk reversal (synthetic short) - one of the cleanest bearish structures you will see in the options market. Here is the breakdown:

  • Net debit: ~$4.6M ($7.7M paid for Sep $210 puts minus $3.1M received from Sep $260 calls)
  • Long put leg (Sep 18 $210): Already in-the-money by roughly $10 with the stock at $199.90. This gives the trader immediate downside exposure and intrinsic value. The BTC (buy to close) order type suggests this may be unwinding a prior short put position, but the net effect is the same - the trader now holds long puts.
  • Short call leg (Sep 18 $260): 30% out-of-the-money. The STO (sell to open) classification means the trader is opening a new short call position, collecting $14.77 per contract to offset the put cost. SNOW would need to rally 30% for this to cause pain.
  • Size matters: 3,000 contracts at the 2,100 lot size represents 300,000 shares of exposure worth ~$60M notional
  • OI context: The Sep $210 put had 3,100 open interest and 3,000 contracts traded - this is essentially the entire market at that strike. The Sep $260 call had 3,200 OI - again, this trade represents nearly the full position.
  • Execution: Both legs filled at the MID simultaneously, confirming institutional desk execution as a package deal
  • Time horizon: Nearly 8 months (232 days to expiration) - this is not a short-term swing trade. This is a structural bearish thesis.

What is really happening here: This is a classic risk reversal that creates synthetic short exposure. The trader profits as SNOW drops below $210 (the put is already ITM), and they have capped their upside risk at $260 by selling the call. The beauty of this structure is capital efficiency - instead of shorting 300,000 shares (requiring massive margin), the trader achieves nearly identical directional exposure for a $4.6M net investment.

The September 18 expiration is critical - it covers Q4 FY2026 earnings (March 4), Q1 FY2027 earnings (late May/early June), Snowflake Summit 2026 (June 1-4), and the potential Databricks IPO window. This trader is positioning for multiple negative catalysts to unfold over the next 8 months.

Unusual Score: EXTREME - A $10.8M gross premium risk reversal with both legs matching nearly the full open interest at their respective strikes. The simultaneous execution at MID with identical lot sizes (2,100) confirms this is a single institutional order, not coincidental retail flow.

Technical Setup / Chart Check-Up

One Calendar Year Chart

SNOW One Calendar Year

SNOW is currently trading around $197.13 after pulling back from a 52-week high of $280.67. The stock has been under pressure since the Barclays downgrade on January 12 and continues to slide despite a parade of AI partnership announcements.

Key observations:

  • Sustained downtrend: SNOW has fallen roughly 18% from its November 2025 highs near $277
  • $200 rejection: The stock has been struggling to hold above the psychologically important $200 level
  • Post-earnings pattern: Shares fell after the Q3 FY2026 beat in December, setting a bearish precedent heading into Q4 results
  • Volume profile: Selling volume has picked up on down days, while rallies on partnership news (Gemini 3 integration) have faded quickly
  • Moving average crossover risk: The stock is approaching key moving averages from above, which could trigger technical selling

Gamma-Based Support & Resistance Analysis

SNOW Gamma S/R

Current Price: $197.13

The gamma exposure map reveals the battlefield for near-term price action:

Support Levels (Put Gamma Below Price):

  • $195 - Strongest gamma support (gamma: 5) - THE critical level to watch
  • $190 - Secondary support (gamma: 3)
  • $180 - Structural support (gamma: 2)
  • $170 - Deep support (gamma: 2)
  • $165 - Floor level (gamma: 1)

Resistance Levels (Call Gamma Above Price):

  • $197.50 - Minor overhead resistance (gamma: 1) - right at current price!
  • $200 - Strongest resistance (gamma: 6) - major ceiling
  • $210 - Significant resistance (gamma: 5) - matches the long put strike
  • $220 - Upper resistance (gamma: 4)
  • $230 - Extended resistance (gamma: 4)

What this means for traders: SNOW is sandwiched between strong support at $195 and a wall of resistance at $200. The net GEX bias is bearish, meaning market maker hedging will amplify downside moves. If $195 breaks, the next meaningful support is $190, then $180 - creating potential for a rapid flush.

Notice the strike selection: The $210 put is struck right at a key gamma resistance level. This means the trader is betting the stock stays below $210 (already the case) and continues lower. The $260 short call sits $30 above the highest gamma resistance level at $230 - the trader is extremely confident the stock will not rally past $260 in the next 8 months.

Net GEX Bias: Bearish - When net gamma exposure is negative, market maker hedging amplifies price moves in both directions. A break below $195 support could trigger a cascade of dealer selling, pushing the stock rapidly toward $185-$190.

Implied Move Analysis

SNOW Implied Move

Options market pricing for upcoming expirations:

  • Weekly (Feb 6 - 7 days): +/-$9.71 (4.9%) -> Range: $187.25 - $206.67
  • Monthly OPEX (Feb 20 - 21 days): +/-$15.36 (7.8%) -> Range: $181.60 - $212.32
  • Quarterly Triple Witch (Mar 20 - 49 days): +/-$28.88 (14.7%) -> Range: $168.08 - $225.84
  • Yearly LEAPS (Dec 18): +/-$62.64 (31.8%) -> Range: $134.32 - $259.61

Translation for regular folks: The options market expects SNOW could move about 5% by next week, nearly 8% by February monthly OPEX, and a whopping 15% by the quarterly Triple Witch in March (which covers Q4 earnings on March 4). That is a huge range of uncertainty.

Look at the yearly LEAPS range: $134.32 to $259.61. The risk reversal trader bought the $210 put and sold the $260 call. The $260 call strike sits right at the upper bound of the yearly implied range - meaning the options market itself says there is very low probability SNOW trades above $260 by December 2026. The trader is effectively selling a lottery ticket on SNOW going to all-time highs.

Meanwhile, the yearly lower bound of $134.32 shows the market prices in meaningful tail risk to the downside. The $210 put gives the trader full participation in any move below $210 through September.

Key insight: The quarterly implied move of +/-14.7% captures the March 4 Q4 earnings event. The lower end of that range ($168.08) represents a potential 15% decline from current levels. If growth deceleration continues and FY2027 guidance disappoints, that kind of move is not out of the question. The risk reversal structure is built to profit from exactly this scenario.

Catalysts

Immediate Catalysts (Next 30 Days)

Pre-Earnings Positioning Window - Now through Late February

SNOW enters its quiet period ahead of the critical Q4 FY2026 earnings report estimated for March 4, 2026. During this window, the stock is vulnerable to:

  • Sector rotation away from high-multiple cloud software names
  • Pre-earnings de-risking by institutional holders
  • Technical breakdown if $195 gamma support fails
  • Competitive noise from a potential Databricks IPO filing which could reprice SNOW downward

Barclays Downgrade Overhang (January 12, 2026)

Barclays downgraded SNOW from Overweight to Equalweight with a price target cut from $290 to $250, citing limited upside after the strong 2025 run. The stock fell 5.1% on the downgrade with 74% above-average volume. This downgrade shifted sentiment and may have set the stage for today's bearish risk reversal.

Near-Term Catalysts (Q1 2026)

Q4 FY2026 Earnings - Estimated March 4, 2026 (THE KEY EVENT)

This is the single most important catalyst for SNOW and almost certainly the primary motivation behind this risk reversal:

Why this matters for the risk reversal: The March 4 earnings report is the first major binary event inside the trade's 8-month window. If SNOW disappoints on FY2027 guidance, the stock could gap down 10-15%, and the $210 put would gain significant value. Even if earnings go well, the trader has 6 more months of catalysts to play out.

Observe Acquisition Closing - Expected H1 2026

Snowflake agreed to acquire Observe for an estimated ~$1 billion, its largest acquisition ever. While the AI-powered observability platform addresses a $50B+ market, it creates integration execution risk, potential margin dilution, and competes head-to-head with established players like Datadog in the observability space.

SAP Business Data Fabric - GA Expected Q1 2026

The SAP-Snowflake partnership for a unified Business Data Fabric is expected to reach general availability in Q1 2026. While this opens access to SAP's massive enterprise customer base, the revenue impact will take quarters to materialize.

Medium-Term Catalysts (Q2-Q3 2026)

Databricks IPO - Expected H1 2026 (THE COMPETITIVE THREAT)

This is the biggest structural risk for SNOW and likely a key reason for the risk reversal's long time horizon:

Snowflake Summit 2026 - June 1-4, San Francisco

Snowflake's annual user conference at Moscone Center historically drives product announcements and stock moves. The risk reversal trader is NOT betting on Summit being a positive catalyst - the short $260 call caps any rally that might result from good news.

Q1 FY2027 Earnings - Expected Late May/Early June 2026

The second earnings report inside the trade window. If Q4 earnings are weak and FY2027 guidance is conservative, Q1 results become a confirmation or inflection point.

Competitive Landscape

Key competitors and their threat levels:

Snowflake's defensive moats:

Price Targets & Probabilities

Using gamma levels, implied move data, and upcoming catalysts, here are the scenarios through the September 18 expiration:

Bull Case (20% probability)

Target: $220-$260

How we get there:

  • Q4 FY2026 earnings beat with FY2027 guidance implying 28%+ growth re-acceleration
  • AI revenue run rate jumps from $100M to $250M+, proving the monetization thesis
  • Databricks IPO delayed or prices at a lower multiple, removing competitive overhang
  • Snowflake Summit 2026 delivers game-changing product announcements
  • Broader market rally lifts high-growth software names

Probability assessment: Only 20% because growth is confirmed to be decelerating (34% -> 27%), the stock fell on a Q3 beat, Barclays just downgraded, and valuation at ~14x forward revenue leaves little room for error. The trader who placed this risk reversal would need SNOW above $260 to lose on the short call, and the market itself prices that as a tail event.

Risk reversal P&L: The $210 put expires worthless, and the $260 short call stays out-of-the-money. Trader loses the $4.6M net debit. If SNOW somehow rallies past $260, the short call starts losing money.

Base Case (45% probability)

Target: $175-$200 (GRIND LOWER)

Most likely scenario:

  • SNOW drifts lower through February as pre-earnings positioning and growth deceleration concerns weigh on the stock
  • Q4 earnings show in-line results but FY2027 guidance of 24-25% growth disappoints the bulls
  • Stock settles in the $175-$195 range through spring/summer as the market digests slowing growth at a premium valuation
  • Databricks IPO creates periodic selling pressure as investors rotate capital
  • Each rally toward $200-$210 fades as sellers emerge at resistance levels

This is the risk reversal buyer's sweet spot: The $210 put gains significant intrinsic value as the stock drifts below $200. If SNOW settles at $180 by September, the put is worth $30/contract ($9M total) versus the $36.87 cost - and the short call expires worthless, returning the $3.1M collected. Net profit on the structure could be $3-5M.

Why 45% probability: Growth deceleration is a confirmed multi-quarter trend, the stock fell on a Q3 beat (signaling the market demands acceleration), Barclays downgrade shifted sentiment, bearish GEX bias supports downward drift, and the Databricks IPO threat is structural.

Bear Case (35% probability)

Target: $135-$175 (SIGNIFICANT CORRECTION)

What could trigger this:

  • Q4 FY2026 earnings disappoint with FY2027 guidance implying sub-24% growth
  • $195 gamma support breaks, triggering a dealer hedging cascade toward $180
  • Databricks IPO at $134B+ forces a dramatic re-rating of SNOW's valuation
  • Enterprise cloud spending slowdown hits consumption-based revenue hard
  • Microsoft Fabric bundling steals mid-market customers, eroding NRR below 120%
  • AI spending rationalization as enterprises demand ROI proof
  • GAAP profitability timeline extends, testing investor patience

Critical support levels on the way down:

  • $195: Strongest gamma support - first domino
  • $190: Secondary gamma floor
  • $180: Major structural support
  • $170: Deep support zone
  • $165: Floor level

Probability assessment: 35% may seem high, but consider the evidence: confirmed growth deceleration over 4 quarters, stock falling on earnings beats, a major analyst downgrade, Databricks growing at nearly 2x the rate at similar scale, and premium valuation at 14x forward revenue. The yearly implied move lower bound of $134 shows the market itself prices meaningful tail risk.

Risk reversal P&L in Bear Case:

  • Stock at $170 by Sep 18: Put worth $40, short call worthless. Profit = ($40 - $36.87) x 3,000 + $3.1M short call premium = ~$4M profit
  • Stock at $150 by Sep 18: Put worth $60, short call worthless. Profit = ($60 - $36.87) x 3,000 + $3.1M = ~$10M profit
  • Stock at $135 by Sep 18: Put worth $75, short call worthless. Profit = ($75 - $36.87) x 3,000 + $3.1M = ~$14.5M profit

Trading Ideas

Conservative: Watch and Wait for Post-Earnings Clarity

Play: Stay on the sidelines until Q4 FY2026 earnings volatility clears around March 4, 2026

Why this works:

  • Growth deceleration is a confirmed 4-quarter trend - no urgency to buy into a decelerating name at 14x revenue
  • The stock FELL on a Q3 earnings beat - sentiment is fragile
  • An institutional player just committed $10.8M to a bearish structure - that is a strong signal
  • Barclays downgraded on January 12 citing limited upside at current valuation
  • Pre-earnings drift tends to be negative for high-multiple names with slowing growth
  • Better entry likely post-earnings after potential pullback to $165-$180 if guidance disappoints

Action plan:

  • Watch for $195 gamma support to hold or break in the next 2-3 weeks
  • Monitor Databricks IPO filing news - any filing creates a buying opportunity in SNOW AFTER the initial re-rating
  • If Q4 earnings show growth stabilization at 27%+ with strong FY2027 guidance ($5.9B+), consider entry in the $170-$185 support zone
  • Set alerts at $195 (support break), $180 (potential entry), and $210 (bull case invalidation)

Risk level: Minimal (cash position) | Skill level: Beginner-friendly

Balanced: March $195/$180 Put Spread (Defined Risk Earnings Play)

Play: Buy a bearish put spread to capture potential downside through the March 4 earnings event

Structure: Buy March 20 $195 puts, Sell March 20 $180 puts

Why this works:

  • $195 is the strongest gamma support - a break triggers dealer hedging that accelerates the downside
  • March 20 expiration captures Q4 FY2026 earnings (March 4) and the immediate aftermath
  • Defined risk: maximum loss is the net debit paid
  • $180 lower strike provides profit target at major structural gamma support
  • Aligns with institutional bearish thesis without the 8-month time commitment
  • Bearish net GEX bias means market makers amplify downside moves

Estimated P&L (adjust based on current market prices):

  • Pay ~$5-6 net debit per spread
  • Max profit: $9-10 per spread if SNOW below $180 at March 20 OPEX (65-100% ROI)
  • Max loss: $5-6 per spread if SNOW above $195 (100% loss of premium)
  • Breakeven: ~$189-$190
  • Probability of profit: ~40-45% based on the 14.7% quarterly implied move

Entry timing:

  • Enter within the next 1-2 weeks while pre-earnings IV is still building
  • Only enter if SNOW is trading $192-$200 (near the strike zone)
  • Skip if stock already below $185 (move already happened)

Position sizing: Risk 2-3% of portfolio maximum. This is a defined-risk directional trade.

Risk level: Moderate (defined risk, directional) | Skill level: Intermediate

Aggressive: Shorter-Dated Risk Reversal (Mirror the Institutional Trade)

Play: Replicate the institutional thesis with a shorter time horizon and smaller size

Structure: Buy March 20 $195 puts, Sell March 20 $220 calls

Why this could work:

  • Directly mirrors the institutional risk reversal structure - follow the smart money
  • Creates synthetic short exposure through the Q4 earnings event
  • $220 short call collects premium to offset put cost, reducing net debit
  • Bearish GEX bias, confirmed growth deceleration, and Barclays downgrade all support the thesis
  • If Q4 earnings disappoint and FY2027 guidance is soft, the put could gain 100%+ in value
  • $220 call is safe - SNOW would need an 11% rally to put it at risk

Why this could fail (REAL RISKS):

  • Q4 earnings surprise to the upside with strong FY2027 guidance re-accelerating growth
  • Broader market rally lifts all software names, overriding bearish thesis
  • AI partnership announcements (new model integrations) generate buying interest
  • Short squeeze if too many traders pile into the same bearish bet
  • The short call creates UNLIMITED upside risk if SNOW rockets higher on an acquisition or AI catalyst
  • If stock stays flat at $195-$200, time decay eats away at the put value

Estimated P&L:

  • Pay ~$3-5 net debit per spread (varies with market conditions)
  • Stock at $175 at March 20: Put worth ~$20, call worthless. Significant profit.
  • Stock at $195 at March 20: Put worth ~$3-4 (time value), call worthless. Roughly breakeven.
  • Stock at $210: Put worthless, call still safe. Lose the net debit.
  • Stock above $220: DANGER ZONE - short call starts losing money with unlimited risk

IMPORTANT WARNING:

  • This structure has UNLIMITED risk on the upside via the short call
  • Only suitable for experienced traders who can manage the short call position
  • Must be willing to stop out or roll the short call if SNOW rallies above $210
  • Consider sizing at 1% of portfolio MAXIMUM

Risk level: HIGH (unlimited upside risk from short call) | Skill level: Advanced only

Risk Factors

Do not ignore these potential landmines:

  • Growth deceleration is confirmed and persistent: Product revenue growth has dropped every quarter - 34% (Q1) -> 30% (Q2) -> 29% (Q3) -> 27% guided (Q4). At ~14x forward revenue, SNOW is priced for durable 25%+ growth. If FY2027 guidance implies sub-25% growth, the multiple compression could be severe.

  • The stock fell on a beat - that is a red flag: SNOW dropped ~8% after Q3 results topped estimates because Q4 product revenue guidance was only in-line. The market is demanding acceleration, not just beats. This sets a high bar for Q4 results.

  • Databricks competitive threat is structural: Databricks growing 55%+ vs. SNOW 29% with NRR >140% vs. 125% at similar revenue scale. A Databricks IPO at $134B+ valuation would create a direct public market comparison that highlights SNOW's growth gap.

  • AI revenue is still small relative to the hype: AI revenue run rate hit $100M in Q3 - less than 2% of annual product revenue. While 50% of bookings are AI-influenced, converting bookings to consumed revenue at scale remains unproven.

  • Still deeply GAAP unprofitable: GAAP net loss of $291.6M in Q3 with trailing 9-month losses exceeding $1 billion. In a market where investors are increasingly demanding profitability, this is a headwind.

  • Bearish gamma positioning amplifies downside: Net GEX bias is bearish with $200 as the strongest resistance. Market maker hedging flows will accelerate any break below $195 support, potentially cascading the stock toward $185-$190 rapidly.

  • Premium valuation leaves no room for error: Forward P/S of ~14x vs. industry average of ~4.8x. Consensus price target range of $185 - $325 shows wide disagreement on fair value. The Barclays downgrade to Equalweight at $250 reflects the view that "strength is priced in".

  • Consumption model risk in a slowing economy: Revenue depends on customer usage patterns. If enterprise IT budgets face cuts or companies consolidate cloud vendors, SNOW's consumption-based model means customers can reduce spending instantly.

  • $10.8M institutional bearish bet is not a coincidence: An institutional player just committed $10.8M gross premium to a risk reversal structure targeting downside through September. Combined with the stock falling on earnings beats and Barclays downgrading, the weight of evidence tilts bearish.

The Bottom Line

Real talk: An institutional player just deployed a $10.8M risk reversal on SNOW - buying September $210 puts for $7.7M and selling September $260 calls for $3.1M. This creates a synthetic short position for a net cost of $4.6M that profits as the stock falls below $210. The 8-month time horizon through September 18 covers at least two earnings reports, the potential Databricks IPO, and Snowflake Summit. This is not a hedge - it is a directional conviction trade.

What this trade tells us:

  • The trader expects SNOW to stay below $210 and likely move significantly lower over the next 8 months
  • The $210 put is already in-the-money ($10 intrinsic value) - this is NOT a speculative OTM bet, it is a high-conviction position
  • The $260 short call tells us the trader sees virtually zero chance of SNOW rallying 30%+ by September
  • The 8-month timeframe suggests the trader is positioning for a sustained decline, not just a quick post-earnings move
  • The risk reversal structure shows confidence in the direction - this is a levered bet, not a hedge
  • Bearish GEX bias, $200 resistance overhead, and confirmed growth deceleration all support the thesis

This is a strong bearish signal backed by real money.

If you own SNOW:

  • Seriously consider trimming 25-35% of your position near $197-$200 - the risk/reward is not favorable
  • Set a mental stop at $190 (secondary gamma support) for your remaining position
  • Watch the $195 gamma level closely - if it breaks on volume, more downside is coming
  • Consider buying protective March $190 or $185 puts to hedge through Q4 earnings (March 4)
  • If holding through earnings, understand this is a binary event with elevated risk given the growth deceleration trend and the fact that the stock fell on the last beat

If you are watching from the sidelines:

  • Do NOT rush in to buy the dip at $195-$200 - institutional flow, analyst downgrades, and technicals all point to more downside
  • Best entry zone is likely $165-$180 after Q4 earnings and/or Databricks IPO repricing
  • What would make it a buy: growth stabilization at 27%+, FY2027 guidance of $5.9B+, AI revenue acceleration toward $200M+ run rate, clear path to GAAP profitability
  • The Databricks IPO could create a great buying opportunity if it causes an overreaction selloff in SNOW
  • Long-term bull case remains intact: RPO of $7.88B (+37% YoY), model-neutral AI platform, 688 enterprise customers >$1M ARR

If you are bearish:

  • The $10.8M institutional risk reversal validates your thesis with real money
  • First target is $195 gamma support, then $190, then $180 if momentum builds
  • Put spreads (March $195/$180 or $190/$170) offer defined-risk bearish exposure for smaller accounts
  • Watch for $195 break on volume as your entry trigger - do not front-run the level
  • Be ready to cover if stock reclaims $210 with conviction - that would invalidate the near-term thesis
  • Keep position sizes reasonable - even the right thesis can lose money with bad timing

Mark your calendar - Key dates:

  • February 6 - Weekly OPEX, +/-4.9% implied move
  • February 20 - Monthly OPEX, +/-7.8% implied move
  • ~March 4, 2026 - Q4 FY2026 Earnings + FY2027 Guidance (THE catalyst)
  • March 20 - Quarterly Triple Witch, +/-14.7% implied move
  • Late May/Early June - Q1 FY2027 Earnings
  • June 1-4 - Snowflake Summit 2026, San Francisco
  • H1 2026 - Potential Databricks IPO filing
  • September 18 - Risk reversal expiration ($210 put + $260 call expire)

Final verdict: SNOW has a compelling long-term AI platform story - the Anthropic, Gemini 3, and OpenAI integrations are real, and 50% of bookings being AI-influenced is meaningful. But the near- and medium-term setup is bearish. Growth is decelerating quarter over quarter. The stock fell on a beat. Barclays downgraded. The company is still deeply unprofitable on a GAAP basis at a $68B valuation. And now a $10.8M institutional risk reversal is betting on sustained downside through September. The evidence is stacking up: risk is skewed to the downside until we see either growth re-acceleration or a meaningful valuation reset.

Patience pays. If you believe in Snowflake's AI Data Cloud vision, wait for a better entry. The $165-$180 range after earnings and the Databricks IPO repricing could give you a much more attractive risk/reward setup. The platform is not going anywhere - but the stock price might.

Disclaimer: Options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The risk reversal described reflects institutional activity that may involve portfolio hedging strategies not applicable to retail traders. Risk reversals with short call legs carry UNLIMITED upside risk. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor before trading. Earnings create binary event risk with potential for significant gaps in either direction. The options described have specific expiration dates and strike prices that may not match your risk profile.

About Snowflake Inc.: Snowflake is a cloud-native data platform that consolidates data hosted on different public clouds for centralized analytics and governance. Products include Snowpark (developer framework), Cortex AI (enterprise AI with Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI model integrations), and a data sharing marketplace. Market cap of $68.2 billion in the Software - Prepackaged Software industry.