IV is low with bearish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 1.0% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.48x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 1% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.39x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 8.9% — normal range
Effective IV 25.2% (ATM 8.9% + spread 8.2% + bias) — excellent value
Total drag 11.62% (spread 8.16% + slippage 3.46%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 9.76 (vega 7.966 / spread 8.16%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +8% (neutral) — Raw: -1%
|OI skew| 29.2% — put-heavy
Vol skew -40.5%, OI skew -29.2% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -26%, ATM: -47%, OTM: +100% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 95% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 2.7x avg — hot
Vol/OI 19.9% — high turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +0.2% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 95% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 96% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 70% — urgent
Conviction +8 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 8.2% — wide
OI 824,496 — deep
Volume 163,769/day — active
$0.41 to cross — cheap
3 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 17% — much tighter than sector
Depth 439.1 contracts (bid:304.8 ask:134.3) — adequate
Avg slippage 3.46% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +38.6% — backwardation
IV percentile 1% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 2.5pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 517.25 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: No earnings detected; FOMC in 5d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +8% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Score 126 (ITM 20% + inst 96%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.