NBIXNeurocrine Biosciences Inc
Options Analysis Report•BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)
Market Cap $16.1B|NASDAQ
● 2026-06-12$159.76
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-06-11 EOD data
1Y +27.8%YTD +13.6%7D -2.1%
Options Vol
98
30D
Implied Move
±8.6%
IV Rank
35%
NBIX Options Overview
Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.5
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 50.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.17x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 23% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.26x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 39.2% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 90.0% (ATM 39.2% + spread 25.4% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 33.41% (spread 25.40% + slippage 8.01%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 3.49 (vega 8.859 / spread 25.40%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.7
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +41%, Raw: +32%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +41% (strong bullish) — Raw: +32%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 6.1% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -18.4%, OI skew +6.1% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +33%, ATM: +79%, OTM: +10% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 85% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
2.7
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.4x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 0.8% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +0.1% (5d) — stable
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 41% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 12% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +41 (bullish) — moderate
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
2.5
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks1/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 25.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 12,900 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 98/day — thin
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.27 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 70% — wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 48.599999999999994 contracts (bid:26.9 ask:21.7) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 8.01% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.2
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +25.8% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 50% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 10.1pts — event priced
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 29.03 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations4 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)acceptable: No earnings detected; FOMC in 5d
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +41% @ 70% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.4
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.9
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.9
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.