IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 91.4% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.10x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 82% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.17x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 94.0% — crisis-level IV
Effective IV 148.0% (ATM 94.0% + spread 27.0% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 35.50% (spread 26.98% + slippage 8.52%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.82 (vega 4.897 / spread 26.98%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -1% (neutral) — Raw: -2%
|OI skew| 54.9% — call-heavy
Vol skew +81.6%, OI skew +54.9% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -87%, ATM: -15%, OTM: +2% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 24% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.9x avg — normal
Vol/OI 3.2% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +0.7% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 74% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 9% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 59% — patient
Conviction -1 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 27.0% — wide
OI 104,330 — deep
Volume 3,295/day — adequate
$1.35 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 93% — much wider than sector
Depth 279.4 contracts (bid:159.5 ask:119.9) — adequate
Avg slippage 8.52% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +17.4% — backwardation
IV percentile 91% — seller opportunity
IV kink 16.3pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 1064.67 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: No earnings detected; FOMC in 5d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -1% @ 50% consistency — unclear
Score 39 (ITM 20% + inst 9%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.