IV is elevated with bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 73.5% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.25x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 50% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.88x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 58.0% — normal range
Effective IV 78.4% (ATM 58.0% + spread 10.2% + bias) — fair
Total drag 16.52% (spread 10.22% + slippage 6.30%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 29.91 (vega 30.565 / spread 10.22%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -41% (strong bearish) — Raw: -22%
|OI skew| 1.1% — balanced
Vol skew +62.6%, OI skew +1.1% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -11%, ATM: -72%, OTM: +22% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 37% — bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.3x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.2% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +1.9% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 51% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 13% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 47% — patient
Conviction -41 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 10.2% — wide
OI 130,443 — deep
Volume 1,524/day — adequate
$0.51 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 80% — much wider than sector
Depth 37.1 contracts (bid:18.0 ask:19.1) — thin
Avg slippage 6.30% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -12.5% — contango
IV percentile 74% — seller opportunity
IV kink -9.9pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 312.21 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: No earnings detected; FOMC in 5d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -41% @ 70% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 43 (ITM 20% + inst 13%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.