IV is elevated with bearish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 78.6% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 72% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.24x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 61.8% — normal range
Effective IV 85.7% (ATM 61.8% + spread 11.9% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 17.73% (spread 11.95% + slippage 5.78%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 40.10 (vega 47.921 / spread 11.95%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -19% (bearish) — Raw: -22%
|OI skew| 4.0% — balanced
Vol skew -20.9%, OI skew +4.0% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -45%, ATM: +35%, OTM: -26% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 89% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.3x avg — normal
Vol/OI 4.6% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +3.8% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 81% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 40% — patient
Conviction -19 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 11.9% — wide
OI 53,699 — deep
Volume 2,487/day — adequate
$0.60 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 85% — much wider than sector
Depth 31.6 contracts (bid:15.4 ask:16.2) — thin
Avg slippage 5.78% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +23.8% — backwardation
IV percentile 79% — seller opportunity
IV kink 12.6pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 650.22 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: No earnings detected; CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -19% @ 59% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.