IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 21.9% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.18x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 7% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.07x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 25.8% — normal range
Effective IV 63.6% (ATM 25.8% + spread 18.9% + bias) — good value
Total drag 21.79% (spread 18.89% + slippage 2.90%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 5.33 (vega 10.078 / spread 18.89%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -16% (bearish) — Raw: -15%
|OI skew| 25.3% — call-heavy
Vol skew +18.5%, OI skew +25.3% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -9%, ATM: -28%, OTM: +9% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 67% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.3x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.6% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -1.8% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 54% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 11% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 46% — patient
Conviction -16 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 18.9% — wide
OI 251,611 — deep
Volume 3,948/day — adequate
$0.94 to cross — expensive
2 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 43% — neutral vs sector
Depth 294.4 contracts (bid:194.3 ask:100.1) — adequate
Avg slippage 2.90% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +7.0% — backwardation
IV percentile 22% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 1.5pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 218.61 — favors income trades
4 liquid expirations — flexible
caution advised: No earnings detected; CPI in 1d (HIGH)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -16% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Score 41 (ITM 20% + inst 11%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.