Options/SMTC

SMTCSemtech Corp

Options Analysis Report•SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

Market Cap $12.2B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-31$131.17

NEUTRAL

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y +127.1%YTD +74.3%7D +8.5%

Options Vol

5,633

30D

Implied Move

±20.6%

IV Rank

37%

SMTC Options Overview

IV is elevated with unusual activity. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for premium sellers

Learn

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SMTC Gamma Walls

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SMTC Hedge Radar

No action needed

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads low; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where SMTC sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (3.04) — downside puts carry 0.9 IV points LESS than at-the-money, and near-dated vol is priced 4% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 16-trading-day realized moves (488 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (3.38): it is trading 18% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

3.04/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

3.38/ 10resilient

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

5.2

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 92.0% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.72x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 85% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.92x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 77.6% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 95.9% (ATM 77.6% + spread 9.2% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 12.69% (spread 9.15% + slippage 3.54%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 68.47 (vega 62.649 / spread 9.15%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

4.9

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -45%, Raw: -33%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -45% (strong bearish) — Raw: -33%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 14.9% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +54.9%, OI skew +14.9% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -8%, ATM: -62%, OTM: -17% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 34% — bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

5.3

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.0x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 4.9% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +21.6% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 66% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 42% — institutional presence

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 28% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction -45 (bearish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.1

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 9.2% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 116,043 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 5,633/day — active

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.46 to cross — cheap

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 91% — much wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 81.30000000000001 contracts (bid:37.6 ask:43.7) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 3.54% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.8

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks8/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -8.3% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 92% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -4.4pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 1779.81 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -45% @ 73% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 72 (ITM 20% + inst 42%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls5.3

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Long Puts5.4

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.2

bullishIV fair, mixed flow

Covered Call5.2

bearishIV fair, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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