AInvestOption Pilot Program
Options/TMF
T

TMFDirexion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF

Options Analysis Report
AUM $2.2B|ARCX
● 2026-08-31$31.33
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -13.4%YTD -15.6%7D +0.8%
18,112
30D
±8.5%
11%

TMF Options Overview

unusual activity. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.5VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn
Loading score history...

TMF Gamma Walls

Loading gamma walls...

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.4
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 42.7% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.91x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 62% — above sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.81x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 28.7% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 68.4% (ATM 28.7% + spread 19.9% + bias) — fair

<3.0%

Total drag 27.31% (spread 19.87% + slippage 7.44%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 1.72 (vega 3.415 / spread 19.87%) — spread drag

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.6
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBearish - Strong signal (Conviction: -24%, Raw: -20%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: -24% (bearish) — Raw: -20%

≥15%

|OI skew| 11.4% — balanced

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +50.2%, OI skew +11.4% — aligned

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -7%, ATM: -32%, OTM: -14% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 14% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

5.4
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks1/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 1.3x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 7.8% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +5.0% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 79% — active vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 28% — mixed

≥60%

Aggressive execution 27% — patient

≥30

Conviction -24 (bearish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.5
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 19.9% — wide

≥10,000

OI 232,582 — deep

≥500

Volume 18,112/day — active

≤$0.50

$0.99 to cross — expensive

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 71% — wider than sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 665.9 contracts (bid:333.4 ask:332.5) — deep

<1.0%

Avg slippage 7.44% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

6.6
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -18.6% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 43% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink -4.4pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 202.08 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No earnings detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow -24% @ 62% consistency — unclear

≥40 composite score

Score 58 (ITM 20% + inst 28%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls5.8
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts5.3
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.7
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.3
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

More on TMF

TMF gamma wallsTMF max painTMF IV rankTMF options flow