IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 3.2% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.38x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 8% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.04x — flat
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 22.6% — normal range
Effective IV 60.0% (ATM 22.6% + spread 18.7% + bias) — good value
Total drag 25.36% (spread 18.69% + slippage 6.67%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 7.42 (vega 13.864 / spread 18.69%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -40% (strong bearish) — Raw: -24%
|OI skew| 53.0% — put-heavy
Vol skew -18.0%, OI skew -53.0% — aligned
0-DTE 20%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: +80%, OTM: -73% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 77% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.0% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +8.8% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 10% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 52% — patient
Conviction -40 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 18.7% — wide
OI 14,462 — adequate
Volume 139/day — thin
$0.93 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 26% — tighter than sector
Depth 65.5 contracts (bid:42.6 ask:22.9) — thin
Avg slippage 6.67% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +4.4% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 3% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 1.1pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 924.30 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 11d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -40% @ 70% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.