Our scoring finds the move 0% of the time.
Hold to expiry? Only 0% make money.
With the right exit plan? 0% win rate, +0.0% avg P&L.
Higher conviction = better results. Long Calls at fit 9+ achieve 61% win rate, PF 6.28. Each strategy has an optimal fit range — validated out-of-sample with walk-forward testing.
Based on 12 weeks of data during a volatile market period. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice.
The Right Exit for Each Strategy
Different strategies need different exit management. Here's what our backtest of 4,622+ trades per strategy reveals.
Bull Call Spread
Debit“Take +5% profits within 7 days. The spread has capped gains — grab it before theta eats it. Out-of-sample PF 1.25.”
Calendar Spread
DebitBear Put Spread
Debit“Take +5% within 5 days. Quick capture validated out-of-sample with PF 3.1.”
Iron Condor
Credit“Close at 25% of premium captured. Time decay works in your favor. Out-of-sample PF 10.8.”
Long Strangle
Debit“Quick +8% capture within 5 days. Volatility spikes are brief — grab the burst.”
Wheel Strategy
Credit“Full cycle: sell puts → if assigned, sell calls. 69% expire worthless (pure premium). Per-put PF <1 at all fit levels — value is in the cycle, not individual trades.”
Covered Call
Credit“Close at 20% of premium + exit 7 days before expiry. Collect and move on.”
Long Straddle
Debit“Take +5% at first opportunity. Straddles profit from any large swing.”
Cash-Secured Put
Credit“Close at 60% of premium captured. Higher fit scores (7+) significantly improve results.”
Long Puts
Debit“Hold to expiry — tail events are the whole point. Best at fit 7-8 (39% win, PF 1.95). No exit rule improves on holding.”
Long Calls
Debit“Exit after 14 days max. Strongly fit-dependent: fit 9+ → 61% win, PF 6.28. Fit 7-8 → 36% win. Quality over quantity.”
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Entry Quality: Fit Score Matters
The scoring system IS predictive — but only at high conviction. Walk-forward validated (train Dec-Feb, test Feb-Apr).
| Strategy | Fit Range | Win Rate | Avg P&L | PF | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Calls | 9+ | 61% | +116% | 6.28 | 279 |
| Long Calls | 8-9 | 47% | +61% | 2.79 | 1,048 |
| Long Calls | 7-8 | 36% | +34% | 1.73 | 2,792 |
| Long Puts | 7-8 | 39% | +50% | 1.95 | 716 |
| Long Puts | 8+ | 28% | +12% | 1.18 | 205 |
| Cash-Secured Put | 7-8 | — | +31% | 2.08 | 437 |
Higher fit score = scoring system has more conviction. PF = Profit Factor (gross wins / gross losses). PF > 1.5 indicates strong edge. Green rows show the optimal fit range per strategy.
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What if you had an exit plan?
We ran every trade through simple profit-taking and stop-loss rules. Here's how exit timing changes results.
| Exit Rule | Win Rate | Avg P&L | Median P&L | Profit Factor | Avg Days | vs Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hold to ExpiryBASELINE | 41.7% | +4.2% | -9.7% | 1.12 | 15d | — |
| Exit at +10% | 69.4% | +7.7% | +13.5% | 1.49 | 7d | +3.5% |
| Exit at +20% | 63.3% | +7.8% | +21.1% | 1.41 | 9d | +3.6% |
| Exit at +30% | 59.7% | +8.2% | +14.0% | 1.38 | 10d | +4.0% |
| Exit at +50%BEST | 54.4% | +8.5% | +4.9% | 1.33 | 11d | +4.3% |
| Exit at +100% | 47.7% | +8.1% | -2.4% | 1.26 | 13d | +3.9% |
| +20% / -30% stop | 51.1% | +1.8% | +1.4% | 1.10 | 6d | -2.4% |
| +20% / -30% / 10d | 51.0% | +2.2% | +1.0% | 1.13 | 5d | -2.0% |
| +20% / -50% / 10d | 55.4% | +3.8% | +5.3% | 1.21 | 5d | -0.4% |
| DTE-scaled aggressive | 58.0% | +6.6% | +15.9% | 1.33 | 3d | +2.4% |
| DTE-scaled moderate | 57.4% | +6.6% | +16.8% | 1.32 | 3d | +2.4% |
| DTE-scaled conservative | 60.3% | +8.0% | +21.9% | 1.36 | 4d | +3.8% |
| Credit: 50% capture | 47.2% | -2.4% | -1.5% | 0.86 | 13d | -6.6% |
| Credit: 50% + 7d floor | 48.0% | -1.9% | -0.5% | 0.82 | 8d | -6.1% |
| Credit: 65% capture | 46.4% | -2.5% | -1.9% | 0.85 | 14d | -6.7% |
| Credit: 65% + 10d floor | 45.3% | -3.3% | -1.1% | 0.69 | 6d | -7.5% |
| Credit: 25% capture | 50.1% | -2.3% | +0.1% | 0.85 | 12d | -6.5% |
| Trail 15% from peak | 42.4% | -1.8% | -4.4% | 0.91 | 9d | -6.0% |
| Trail 20% from peak | 42.9% | -1.9% | -4.5% | 0.91 | 10d | -6.1% |
| Trail 30% from peak | 41.9% | -2.8% | -6.0% | 0.89 | 11d | -7.0% |
The signal works. The edge is in the exit.
Simulated on 17,716 expired trades with real option prices. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
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For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.