IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 1.5% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.59x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 2% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.66x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 11.7% — normal range
Effective IV 68.8% (ATM 11.7% + spread 28.6% + bias) — fair
Total drag 29.52% (spread 28.57% + slippage 0.95%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.94 (vega 5.532 / spread 28.57%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -100% (strong bearish) — Raw: -100%
|OI skew| 12.6% — balanced
Vol skew -100.0%, OI skew -12.6% — aligned
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: +0%, OTM: -100% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 32% — bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.1x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.1% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +0.3% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 1% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 0% — patient
Conviction -100 (bearish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 28.6% — wide
OI 2,853 — thin
Volume 2/day — thin
$1.43 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 19% — much tighter than sector
Depth 8.0 contracts (bid:6.0 ask:2.0) — thin
Avg slippage 0.95% — good
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -34.2% — contango
IV percentile 2% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -1.7pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 864.31 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -100% @ 100% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.