IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 21.9% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 0.79x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 33% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.78x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 28.6% — normal range
Effective IV 54.8% (ATM 28.6% + spread 13.1% + bias) — good value
Total drag 18.14% (spread 13.11% + slippage 5.03%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 16.48 (vega 21.611 / spread 13.11%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -12% (bearish) — Raw: -13%
|OI skew| 35.9% — put-heavy
Vol skew -45.2%, OI skew -35.9% — aligned
0-DTE 32%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -42%, ATM: -8%, OTM: -17% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 93% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.6x avg — normal
Vol/OI 3.1% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +7.2% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 49% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 49% — institutional presence
Aggressive execution 24% — patient
Conviction -12 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 13.1% — wide
OI 757,914 — deep
Volume 23,651/day — active
$0.66 to cross — expensive
1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 44% — neutral vs sector
Depth 743.8 contracts (bid:355.9 ask:387.9) — deep
Avg slippage 5.03% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -22.0% — contango
IV percentile 22% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -5.1pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 400.20 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -12% @ 56% consistency — unclear
Score 79 (ITM 20% + inst 49%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.