IV is low with unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 14.6% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.04x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 5% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.98x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 27.2% — normal range
Effective IV 53.6% (ATM 27.2% + spread 13.2% + bias) — good value
Total drag 19.84% (spread 13.20% + slippage 6.64%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.46 (vega 1.924 / spread 13.20%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +1% (neutral) — Raw: -1%
|OI skew| 0.2% — balanced
Vol skew -13.7%, OI skew +0.2% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 33%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +18%, ATM: +0%, OTM: -4% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 69% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 4.1x avg — hot
Vol/OI 27.6% — high turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
2 day(s) elevated — sustained
OI change +27.2% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 98% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 20% — mixed
Aggressive execution 42% — patient
Conviction +1 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 13.2% — wide
OI 197,671 — deep
Volume 54,469/day — active
$0.66 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 10% — much tighter than sector
Depth 252.1 contracts (bid:120.4 ask:131.7) — adequate
Avg slippage 6.64% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -1.8% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 15% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 0.7pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 5.26 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
HIGH RISK: Earnings in -1d (HIGH RISK)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +1% @ 50% consistency — unclear
Score 50 (ITM 20% + inst 20%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.