AESAES Corporation
Options Analysis Report•COGENERATION SERVICES & SMALL POWER PRODUCERS
Market Cap $10.3B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$14.47
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +47.7%YTD -2.4%7D +0.6%
Options Vol
16,571
30D
Implied Move
±6.0%
IV Rank
9%
AES Options Overview
IV is low with bearish flow and unusual activity. Conditions favor option buyers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
7.4
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 1.3% — cheap vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 3.49x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 14% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.58x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 20.7% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 69.7% (ATM 20.7% + spread 24.5% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 42.25% (spread 24.49% + slippage 17.76%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.80 (vega 1.967 / spread 24.49%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.3
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: -6%, Raw: -7%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -6% (neutral) — Raw: -7%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 25.4% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -18.9%, OI skew +25.4% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 1%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +71%, ATM: +58%, OTM: -10% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 88% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
6.0
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 3.9x avg — hot
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 8.6% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change -1.1% (5d) — stable
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 97% — very active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 92% — heavy institutional
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 78% — urgent
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -6 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.1
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 24.5% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 193,596 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 16,571/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$1.22 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 22% — tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 198.39999999999998 contracts (bid:63.3 ask:135.1) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 17.76% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.3
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -42.1% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 1% — buyer opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -9.1pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 614.78 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 20d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -6% @ 53% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 122 (ITM 20% + inst 92%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.8
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts6.3
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.2
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.7
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.