Options/AJG

AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Options Analysis Report•INSURANCE AGENTS, BROKERS & SERVICE

Market Cap $68.6B|NYSE

● 2026-08-31$267.56

BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y -11.6%YTD +4.5%7D -1.6%

Options Vol

888

30D

Implied Move

±8.1%

IV Rank

16%

AJG Options Overview

bullish flow. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Favorable conditions for option buyers

Learn

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AJG Gamma Walls

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AJG Hedge Radar

No action needed

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads low; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where AJG sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (2.83) — near-dated vol is priced 8% below far-dated, and downside puts carry 0.8 IV points more than at-the-money, measured against this name's own rolling 15-trading-day realized moves (489 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (2.5): it is trading 15% above its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

2.83/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

2.50/ 10resilient

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

6.0

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks5/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 50.5% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 1.20x — IV premium over HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 77% — above sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.91x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 30.4% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 60.5% (ATM 30.4% + spread 15.1% + bias) — good value

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 19.20% (spread 15.07% + slippage 4.13%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 33.84 (vega 51.001 / spread 15.07%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

8.4

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +54%, Raw: +38%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +54% (strong bullish) — Raw: +38%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 27.8% — call-heavy

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +52.5%, OI skew +27.8% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: -100%, ATM: +0%, OTM: +42% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 20% — very bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

6.5

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks6/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 1.8x avg — elevated

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 6.7% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

2 day(s) elevated — sustained

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +14.9% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 84% — very active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 39% — institutional presence

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 24% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +54 (bullish) — strong conviction

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

2.6

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 15.1% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 13,322 — adequate

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 888/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$0.75 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 78% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 26.9 contracts (bid:12.9 ask:14.0) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 4.13% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.7

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -9.3% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 50% — neutral

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -2.4pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 489.92 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +54% @ 77% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 69 (ITM 20% + inst 39%) — HIGH institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls7.6

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Long Puts4.2

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.8

bullishIV fair, bullish flow

Covered Call3.5

bearishIV fair, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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