IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 88.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.24x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 89% — above sector median
Front/Back 0.88x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 55.1% — normal range
Effective IV 111.7% (ATM 55.1% + spread 28.3% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 43.53% (spread 28.28% + slippage 15.25%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 3.73 (vega 10.536 / spread 28.28%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +5% (neutral) — Raw: +11%
|OI skew| 12.7% — balanced
Vol skew -51.9%, OI skew -12.7% — aligned
0-DTE 11%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -46%, ATM: -24%, OTM: +18% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 88% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.7x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.4% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +3.1% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 42% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 27% — patient
Conviction +5 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 28.3% — wide
OI 33,292 — adequate
Volume 802/day — adequate
$1.41 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 90% — much wider than sector
Depth 41.7 contracts (bid:20.0 ask:21.7) — thin
Avg slippage 15.25% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -11.9% — contango
IV percentile 88% — seller opportunity
IV kink -11.7pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 37.60 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 12d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +5% @ 53% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.