IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 20.4% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.18x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 31% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.88x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 28.0% — normal range
Effective IV 69.4% (ATM 28.0% + spread 20.7% + bias) — fair
Total drag 28.31% (spread 20.72% + slippage 7.59%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.01 (vega 2.102 / spread 20.72%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -38% (strong bearish) — Raw: -47%
|OI skew| 28.8% — put-heavy
Vol skew -40.6%, OI skew -28.8% — aligned
0-DTE 4%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -54%, ATM: -20%, OTM: -52% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 92% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.8x avg — normal
Vol/OI 3.2% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +4.6% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 50% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 66% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 47% — patient
Conviction -38 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 20.7% — wide
OI 213,478 — deep
Volume 6,782/day — active
$1.04 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 43% — neutral vs sector
Depth 818.1 contracts (bid:408.5 ask:409.6) — deep
Avg slippage 7.59% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -12.2% — contango
IV percentile 20% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -2.9pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 225.98 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 11d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -38% @ 69% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Score 96 (ITM 20% + inst 66%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.