IV is low with bullish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 10.6% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.82x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 32% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.11x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 26.1% — normal range
Effective IV 87.7% (ATM 26.1% + spread 30.8% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 42.03% (spread 30.81% + slippage 11.22%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 6.19 (vega 19.056 / spread 30.81%) — acceptable
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +81% (strong bullish) — Raw: +74%
|OI skew| 37.4% — put-heavy
Vol skew +72.9%, OI skew -37.4% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 1%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: -80%, OTM: +79% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 17% — very bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 4.8% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +7.4% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 81% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 68% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 35% — patient
Conviction +81 (bullish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 30.8% — wide
OI 7,758 — thin
Volume 369/day — thin
$1.54 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 45% — neutral vs sector
Depth 44.0 contracts (bid:16.7 ask:27.3) — thin
Avg slippage 11.22% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +10.8% — backwardation
IV percentile 11% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 2.2pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 224.72 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 12d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +81% @ 91% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)
Score 98 (ITM 20% + inst 68%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.