Some of the biggest UOA wins in our six-month dataset weren't long-call moonshots — they were premium sellers who called the top. The cleanest example is Broadcom (AVGO), December 2025.
On December 8, 2025, AVGO was trading at $401.70, near all-time highs after a ~50% rally over the prior six months. Two institutional desks sat on the same view: this rally was exhausted, and the right play was to sell premium against it. Over a single morning, our Unusual Options Activity scanner flagged two parallel SELL prints on the same contract — the AVGO 310-strike call expiring December 19 (just 11 days out).
Total premium collected: $249 million. Both prints. Same strike. Same expiration. Different volumes (14,000 and 27,000 contracts). Two different desks, same thesis: AVGO won't stay above $310 by next Friday.
By December 19 expiration, AVGO had dropped to $340. The 310C had decayed from $92.06 to $30.05. The premium sellers captured roughly 67% of their credit — about $167 million in combined P&L.
First published: Daily Institutional Flow Digest, December 8, 2025 · AVGO flow on 2025-12-08.
The two prints
| Field | Print 1 | Print 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Date | 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-08 |
| Side | SELL | SELL |
| Strike | 310 | 310 |
| Expiration | 2025-12-19 | 2025-12-19 |
| Volume | 14,000 | 27,000 |
| Premium collected | $129M | $120M |
| Entry option price | $92.06 | $92.07 |
| AVGO spot at trade | $401.70 | $401.70 |
| Outcome | expired in profit | expired in profit |
| Exit option price | $30.05 | $30.05 |
| Captured premium | 67% | 67% |
| P&L | +$87M | +$81M |
Same strike, same expiration, near-identical entry — but two distinct prints from two desks, classified into the same execution_group by our matcher. Coordinated institutional thesis, sized large.
What AVGO did
Daily closes Dec 8 → Dec 19:
| Date | AVGO close | Move from 12/8 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 (entry) | $401.70 | — |
| 2025-12-10 (peak high) | $414.61 | +3.2% |
| 2025-12-12 | $385.40 | -4.1% |
| 2025-12-15 | $355.20 | -11.6% |
| 2025-12-17 (trough low) | $321.42 | -20.0% |
| 2025-12-19 (expiration) | $340.36 | -15.3% |
AVGO peaked at $414.61 on December 10 (two days after the entry — premium sellers briefly underwater) and then sold off 20% over the next week. By expiration the stock was below the strike + credit breakeven, and the calls expired far out of the money.
What the calls did
| Date | 310C 12/19 close |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 (entry) | $92.06 |
| 2025-12-10 | ~$110 (peak — sellers underwater) |
| 2025-12-15 | ~$48 |
| 2025-12-17 (trough) | $15.20 |
| 2025-12-19 (expiration) | $30.05 |
The 310C dropped from $92 to $30 over 11 days — a $62 decline per contract. For the seller of 14,000 contracts at $92, that's $87M of P&L. For the seller of 27,000 contracts at the same level, $81M.
The AVGO Q4 catalyst
Broadcom reported earnings on December 11, 2025 — three days after the entry print. The Q4 numbers were a slight beat, but guidance for next quarter came in below sell-side modeling. The stock initially rallied (peaking 12/10 ahead of earnings) then sold off post-earnings as the cautious guidance reset expectations.
The institutions that sold the 310C calls on December 8 were positioned for exactly this outcome. They didn't need AVGO to crash — they needed the rally to exhaust. Earnings caution provided the catalyst.
The institutional thesis: AVGO had run too far, too fast; the December 19 calls at $92 of premium were over-priced relative to the realistic earnings outcome; selling premium into the elevated IV would print regardless of whether earnings beat or missed, as long as the post-earnings reaction wasn't another extension higher.
That thesis paid +$167M.
Why this trade is a "flow tells you first" example
The week before AVGO's December 11 earnings, public discourse was bullish. Sell-side notes called for sustained AI capex tailwinds. Retail volume on AVGO was elevated. The 310-strike call was where most of the speculative buying was happening at $92 of premium.
Institutional desks were the other side of that flow. When everybody on the bid is paying $92 for a 11-day OTM call, the desks selling that vol are the ones who think the stock has run too far. Their positioning showed up clearly on the unusual flow tape on December 8 — two parallel $100M+ short prints.
The pattern repeats. When you see large short-side premium-seller prints into a rally, the institutional view is "this is exhausting." It's often right.
What this trade did NOT mean
The institutions that sold AVGO 310C 12/19 didn't have non-public information about AVGO's earnings. They had a vol thesis (premium too rich) and a directional thesis (rally exhausting). Both proved correct.
Most UOA prints don't print like this — read the methodology piece for the honest aggregate stats.
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Other flashback case studies — INTC · ARM · NVDA · NFLX (WBD non-bid) · AMZN · AMD. Plus the original Whales Knew First series and How We Score Every UOA Trade — Honestly.
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