CCLCarnival Corporation
Options Analysis Report•WATER TRANSPORTATION
Market Cap $40.5B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$29.22
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +69.5%YTD -5.5%7D +4.4%
Options Vol
96,735
30D
Implied Move
±15.7%
IV Rank
46%
CCL Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.1
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 87.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.84x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 90% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.05x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 54.2% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 74.2% (ATM 54.2% + spread 10.0% + bias) — fair
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 16.48% (spread 10.00% + slippage 6.48%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 9.01 (vega 9.013 / spread 10.00%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Weak signal (Conviction: -11%, Raw: -15%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -11% (bearish) — Raw: -15%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 2.1% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -4.2%, OI skew -2.1% — weak (same direction)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 34%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -91%, ATM: -6%, OTM: -0% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 68% — bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
5.3
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.2x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 7.9% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +8.4% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 74% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 42% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 54% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -11 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
5.0
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 10.0% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 1,218,956 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 96,735/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.50 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 90% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 676.0 contracts (bid:255.6 ask:420.4) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.48% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +5.1% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 87% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 1.2pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 979.67 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: No events detected
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -11% @ 56% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 72 (ITM 20% + inst 42%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.2
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.5
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.