IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 82.4% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.02x — IV ≤ HV
Sector percentile 54% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.03x — flat
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 49.2% — normal range
Effective IV 71.8% (ATM 49.2% + spread 11.3% + bias) — fair
Total drag 17.18% (spread 11.32% + slippage 5.86%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 69.51 (vega 78.688 / spread 11.32%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -68% (strong bearish) — Raw: -49%
|OI skew| 16.3% — put-heavy
Vol skew -32.5%, OI skew -16.3% — aligned
0-DTE 37%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +8%, ATM: +3%, OTM: -65% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 92% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.2x avg — normal
Vol/OI 6.9% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +8.0% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 52% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 53% — heavy institutional
Aggressive execution 38% — patient
Conviction -68 (bearish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 11.3% — wide
OI 87,370 — deep
Volume 5,999/day — active
$0.57 to cross — expensive
1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 55% — neutral vs sector
Depth 57.3 contracts (bid:23.4 ask:33.9) — thin
Avg slippage 5.86% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +2.7% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 82% — seller opportunity
IV kink -3.4pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 610.93 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 10d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -68% @ 84% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 83 (ITM 20% + inst 53%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.