Mixed signals. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 68.2% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.56x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 29% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.16x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 40.8% — normal range
Effective IV 70.7% (ATM 40.8% + spread 14.9% + bias) — fair
Total drag 18.92% (spread 14.94% + slippage 3.98%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 1.66 (vega 2.476 / spread 14.94%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +50% (strong bullish) — Raw: +40%
|OI skew| 1.1% — balanced
Vol skew +10.4%, OI skew +1.1% — aligned
0-DTE 4%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +20%, ATM: -22%, OTM: +58% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 66% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.1x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.7% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +0.8% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 3% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 42% — patient
Conviction +50 (bullish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 14.9% — wide
OI 44,244 — adequate
Volume 326/day — thin
$0.75 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 31% — tighter than sector
Depth 56.5 contracts (bid:26.9 ask:29.6) — thin
Avg slippage 3.98% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +15.6% — backwardation
IV percentile 68% — neutral
IV kink 6.4pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 4.13 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: Earnings in 19d (low risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +50% @ 75% consistency — STRONG directional (bullish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.