CFCF Industries Holding, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS
Market Cap $17.3B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$112.68
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +50.0%YTD +40.6%7D -7.1%
Options Vol
7,921
30D
Implied Move
±15.9%
IV Rank
50%
CF Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.3
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 86.6% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.06x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 85% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.09x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 53.9% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 89.5% (ATM 53.9% + spread 17.8% + bias) — expensive
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 21.93% (spread 17.81% + slippage 4.12%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 20.99 (vega 37.387 / spread 17.81%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.7
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: +0%, Raw: +0%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +0% (neutral) — Raw: +0%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 17.7% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -16.2%, OI skew +17.7% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 43%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +20%, ATM: +23%, OTM: -10% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 75% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks2/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.5x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.6% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +6.9% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 65% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 21% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 25% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +0 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
3.4
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 17.8% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 142,384 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 7,921/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.89 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 85% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 198.8 contracts (bid:108.1 ask:90.7) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 4.12% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.1
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +9.1% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 87% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 2.2pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 812.76 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 19d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +0% @ 50% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 51 (ITM 20% + inst 21%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.7
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts4.9
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.1
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call5.3
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.