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CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-EATING PLACES
Market Cap $48.1B|NYSE
● 2026-08-31$38.03
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data
1Y -8.9%YTD +1.4%7D +1.6%
30,676
30D
±9.1%
1%

CMG Options Overview

Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

5.8VALUESENTIMENTACTIVITYLIQUIDITYTIMING

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn
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CMG Gamma Walls

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Value

Is IV priced right?

8.1
ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
≤35%

IV Rank 60.4% — elevated vs history

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.64x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 48% — below sector median

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.79x — contango

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

<80%

ATM IV 32.5% — normal range

<80%

Effective IV 50.7% (ATM 32.5% + spread 9.1% + bias) — good value

<3.0%

Total drag 14.24% (spread 9.09% + slippage 5.15%) — high friction

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 12.02 (vega 10.928 / spread 9.09%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

5.7
BearishBullish

Analyzes

,
, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksBullish - Moderate signal (Conviction: +13%, Raw: +6%)
|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +13% (bullish) — Raw: +6%

≥15%

|OI skew| 14.3% — balanced

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +3.6%, OI skew +14.3% — weak (same direction)

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +28%, ATM: +12%, OTM: -8% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 66% — bearish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.1
QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks0/8 checks passed
≥1.5x

Volume 0.5x avg — normal

≥15%

Vol/OI 4.0% — normal turnover

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

≥5%

OI change +4.3% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 46% — neutral vs sector

≥30%

Large trade volume 21% — mixed

≥60%

Aggressive execution 35% — patient

≥30

Conviction +13 (bullish) — mixed

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

4.9
IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
≤5.0%

Spread 9.1% — wide

≥10,000

OI 762,744 — deep

≥500

Volume 30,676/day — active

≤$0.50

$0.45 to cross — cheap

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 52% — neutral vs sector

≥100 contracts

Depth 400.0 contracts (bid:210.6 ask:189.4) — adequate

<1.0%

Avg slippage 5.15% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.1
RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
|slope| ≥5%

Slope -20.7% — contango

<30 or >70

IV percentile 60% — neutral

≥10pts kink

IV kink -4.1pts — no clear event

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 867.29 — favors income trades

≥3 expirations

4 liquid expirations — flexible

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +13% @ 57% consistency — unclear

≥40 composite score

Score 51 (ITM 20% + inst 21%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers
Long Calls6.6
bullishIV cheap, mixed flow
Long Puts6.1
bearishIV cheap, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.6
bullishIV too cheap, mixed flow
Covered Call4.1
bearishIV too cheap, mixed flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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