CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Options Analysis Report•RETAIL-EATING PLACES
Market Cap $46.7B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$35.83
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y -23.0%YTD -4.4%7D +5.1%
Options Vol
17,877
30D
Implied Move
±17.6%
IV Rank
28%
CMG Options Overview
IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
4.0
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 78.1% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.79x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 80% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 0.86x — contango
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 46.2% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 64.2% (ATM 46.2% + spread 9.0% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 11.42% (spread 8.98% + slippage 2.44%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 19.12 (vega 17.169 / spread 8.98%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
4.0
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Weak signal (Conviction: +2%, Raw: -2%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +2% (neutral) — Raw: -2%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 0.8% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -36.3%, OI skew +0.8% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 19%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -0%, ATM: +5%, OTM: -8% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 86% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
2.5
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks0/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.6x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 2.1% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +3.8% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 20% — quiet vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 7% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 16% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +2 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
5.2
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 9.0% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 845,549 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 17,877/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.45 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes3 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 80% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 669.7 contracts (bid:314.6 ask:355.1) — deep
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 2.44% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.3
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope -14.3% — contango
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 78% — seller opportunity
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -12.0pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 2452.73 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)acceptable: Earnings in 12d
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +2% @ 51% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 37 (ITM 20% + inst 7%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.7
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.4
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.3
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call6.0
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.