CMICummins Inc.
Options Analysis Report•ENGINES & TURBINES
Market Cap $86.7B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$627.18
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +128.7%YTD +20.1%7D +1.8%
Options Vol
967
30D
Implied Move
±11.7%
IV Rank
61%
CMI Options Overview
bullish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
5.7
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 51.2% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 0.91x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 53% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.15x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 36.5% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 52.4% (ATM 36.5% + spread 7.9% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 14.01% (spread 7.93% + slippage 6.08%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 193.56 (vega 153.491 / spread 7.93%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.9
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -12%, Raw: -15%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -12% (bearish) — Raw: -15%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 5.5% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +61.9%, OI skew +5.5% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 35%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +35%, ATM: +20%, OTM: -46% — strong bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 19% — very bullish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
4.5
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.4x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 5.2% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +6.5% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 57% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 29% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -12 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.3
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 7.9% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 18,556 — adequate
Active Volume
≥500Volume 967/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.40 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes6 liquid strikes — good coverage
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 55% — neutral vs sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 17.9 contracts (bid:8.0 ask:9.9) — thin
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 6.08% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.8
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +14.9% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 51% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 4.8pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 766.31 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 17d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -12% @ 56% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.7
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Long Puts5.1
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.2
bullishIV fair, mixed flow
Covered Call4.6
bearishIV fair, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.