COFCapital One Financial
Options Analysis Report•NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS
Market Cap $128.4B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$206.47
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +25.0%YTD -16.7%7D +7.0%
Options Vol
16,438
30D
Implied Move
±12.0%
IV Rank
54%
COF Options Overview
Mixed signals. Conditions favor premium sellers.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
3.9
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 65.8% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.27x — IV premium over HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 83% — above sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.43x — backwardation
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 40.2% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 62.2% (ATM 40.2% + spread 11.0% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 15.89% (spread 10.98% + slippage 4.91%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 20.42 (vega 22.424 / spread 10.98%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
5.6
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Weak signal (Conviction: +10%, Raw: +13%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +10% (neutral) — Raw: +13%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 2.7% — balanced
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +12.7%, OI skew -2.7% — divergent (opposite)
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 29%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +33%, ATM: -31%, OTM: +23% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 48% — neutral vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
5.0
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks3/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 1.1x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 8.7% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +9.8% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 76% — active vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 43% — institutional presence
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 46% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +10 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.2
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks3/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 11.0% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 189,913 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 16,438/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.55 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes1 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 84% — much wider than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 102.5 contracts (bid:54.0 ask:48.5) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 4.91% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
7.0
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +42.7% — backwardation
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 66% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 13.5pts — event priced
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 139.88 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)caution advised: Earnings in 4d (elevated risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +10% @ 55% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 73 (ITM 20% + inst 43%) — HIGH institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls5.0
bullishIV expensive, mixed flow
Long Puts4.6
bearishIV expensive, mixed flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.7
bullishIV rich premium, mixed flow
Covered Call5.3
bearishIV rich premium, mixed flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.