COPConocoPhillips
Options Analysis Report•PETROLEUM REFINING
Market Cap $141.4B|NYSE
● 2026-04-17$116.04
NEUTRAL
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y +32.5%YTD +20.0%7D -5.3%
Options Vol
16,561
30D
Implied Move
±9.8%
IV Rank
47%
COP Options Overview
Mixed signals. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
6.9
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks7/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 41.8% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.03x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 32% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.01x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 33.7% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 58.5% (ATM 33.7% + spread 12.4% + bias) — good value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 16.10% (spread 12.41% + slippage 3.69%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 15.84 (vega 19.655 / spread 12.41%) — efficient
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
6.3
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksNeutral - Moderate signal (Conviction: +2%, Raw: +1%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: +2% (neutral) — Raw: +1%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 16.8% — call-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew +22.6%, OI skew +16.8% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 15%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: -11%, ATM: -18%, OTM: +16% — bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 48% — neutral vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
3.6
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.8x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 3.9% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +7.5% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 57% — neutral vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 12% — mostly retail
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 36% — patient
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction +2 (bullish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.5
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks4/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 12.4% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 429,630 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 16,561/day — active
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.62 to cross — expensive
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 35% — tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 277.7 contracts (bid:154.2 ask:123.5) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 3.69% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
6.7
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks5/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +1.0% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 42% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink -0.8pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 384.64 — favors income trades
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations5 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)acceptable: Earnings in 13d
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow +2% @ 51% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 42 (ITM 20% + inst 12%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls6.3
bullishIV cheap, bullish flow
Long Puts5.4
bearishIV cheap, bullish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put5.0
bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow
Covered Call4.1
bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.