IV is elevated with bearish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 84.3% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.23x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 88% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.14x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 51.2% — normal range
Effective IV 127.4% (ATM 51.2% + spread 38.1% + bias) — expensive
Total drag 44.30% (spread 38.12% + slippage 6.18%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 10.64 (vega 40.562 / spread 38.12%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +14% (bullish) — Raw: +19%
|OI skew| 6.8% — balanced
Vol skew -61.1%, OI skew +6.8% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 6%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: -75%, OTM: +50% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 92% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.4x avg — normal
Vol/OI 0.8% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +1.6% (5d) — stable
Sector activity percentile 14% — quiet vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 25% — patient
Conviction +14 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 38.1% — wide
OI 4,425 — thin
Volume 36/day — thin
$1.91 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 88% — much wider than sector
Depth 33.9 contracts (bid:17.2 ask:16.7) — thin
Avg slippage 6.18% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +13.7% — backwardation
IV percentile 84% — seller opportunity
IV kink 6.6pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 459.36 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: Earnings in 19d (low risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +14% @ 57% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.