IV is elevated. Conditions favor premium sellers.
Neither score is at an extreme today. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where CRM sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.
Protection is priced in the fair band (5.47) — near-dated vol is priced 61% above far-dated, and the move being priced is 1.52x this name's own median 19-trading-day move, measured against this name's own rolling 19-trading-day realized moves (485 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (3.01): it is trading 8% above its hedge wall on a wall graded HIGH for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 91.7% — elevated vs history
IV/HV 1.30x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 70% — above sector median
Front/Back 2.06x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 56.6% — normal range
Effective IV 67.4% (ATM 56.6% + spread 5.4% + bias) — fair
Total drag 9.19% (spread 5.38% + slippage 3.81%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 39.48 (vega 21.239 / spread 5.38%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +8% (neutral) — Raw: +10%
|OI skew| 6.2% — balanced
Vol skew +1.8%, OI skew +6.2% — weak (same direction)
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -8%, ATM: -3%, OTM: +13% — neutral (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 67% — bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.0x avg — normal
Vol/OI 9.0% — normal turnover
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -23.2% (5d) — unwinding
Sector activity percentile 67% — active vs sector
Large trade volume 25% — mixed
Aggressive execution 28% — patient
Conviction +8 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 5.4% — wide
OI 757,582 — deep
Volume 67,861/day — active
$0.27 to cross — cheap
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 70% — wider than sector
Depth 240.9 contracts (bid:106.5 ask:134.4) — adequate
Avg slippage 3.81% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +105.8% — backwardation
IV percentile 92% — seller opportunity
IV kink 44.6pts — event priced
θ/ν ratio 90.30 — favors income trades
5 liquid expirations — flexible
HIGH RISK: Earnings in 1d (HIGH RISK)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +8% @ 54% consistency — unclear
Score 55 (ITM 20% + inst 25%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.