IV is low with bearish flow. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 3.8% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.13x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 34% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.07x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 22.7% — normal range
Effective IV 62.0% (ATM 22.7% + spread 19.6% + bias) — good value
Total drag 25.58% (spread 19.63% + slippage 5.95%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 8.79 (vega 17.253 / spread 19.63%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: +15% (bullish) — Raw: +13%
|OI skew| 50.5% — call-heavy
Vol skew -66.4%, OI skew +50.5% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 40%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: +25%, OTM: -11% — bullish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 97% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.0x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.7% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +2.4% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 56% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 43% — institutional presence
Aggressive execution 34% — patient
Conviction +15 (bullish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 19.6% — wide
OI 109,885 — deep
Volume 2,997/day — adequate
$0.98 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 41% — neutral vs sector
Depth 218.60000000000002 contracts (bid:97.2 ask:121.4) — adequate
Avg slippage 5.95% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +7.4% — backwardation
IV percentile 4% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 1.3pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 1526.80 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 14d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow +15% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Score 73 (ITM 20% + inst 43%) — HIGH institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.