IV is low. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 1.1% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.39x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 10% — below sector median
Front/Back 1.12x — backwardation
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 20.6% — normal range
Effective IV 52.0% (ATM 20.6% + spread 15.7% + bias) — good value
Total drag 20.91% (spread 15.71% + slippage 5.20%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 16.39 (vega 25.754 / spread 15.71%) — efficient
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -35% (strong bearish) — Raw: -25%
|OI skew| 30.2% — call-heavy
Vol skew +43.4%, OI skew +30.2% — aligned
0-DTE 29%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -32%, ATM: +21%, OTM: -49% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 34% — bullish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.8x avg — normal
Vol/OI 2.6% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +6.3% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 50% — neutral vs sector
Large trade volume 13% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 37% — patient
Conviction -35 (bearish) — moderate
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 15.7% — wide
OI 92,192 — deep
Volume 2,376/day — adequate
$0.79 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 19% — much tighter than sector
Depth 233.6 contracts (bid:141.6 ask:92.0) — adequate
Avg slippage 5.20% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +11.5% — backwardation
IV percentile 1% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 2.1pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 881.99 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: Earnings in 18d (low risk)
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -35% @ 68% consistency — moderate (bearish)
Score 43 (ITM 20% + inst 13%) — moderate institutional
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.