Options/DUOL

DUOLDuolingo, Inc. Class A Common Stock

Options Analysis Report•SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

Market Cap $6.9B|NASDAQ

● 2026-08-31$146.98

BULLISH

Analysis: 2026-08-28 EOD data

1Y -49.3%YTD -16.7%7D +0.1%

Options Vol

3,907

30D

Implied Move

±15.1%

IV Rank

DUOL Options Overview

IV is elevated with bullish flow. Conditions favor premium sellers.

REWARDS

RISK ANALYSIS

Snowflake Analysis

Balanced conditions with no clear edge

Learn

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DUOL Gamma Walls

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DUOL Hedge Radar

No action needed

Full Hedge Radar

Fragility reads low; protection is priced cheap. Neither axis is a forecast — this is where DUOL sits on protection cost vs. fragility today.

Protection is priced in the cheap band (1.27) — implied vol sits in the 0th percentile of its own past year, and near-dated vol is priced 22% below far-dated, measured against this name's own rolling 19-trading-day realized moves (485 overlapping windows). Fragility reads resilient (3.79): it is trading 7% above its hedge wall on a wall graded MEDIUM for reliability, and its realized-vol regime is stable.

Protection cost

1.27/ 10cheap

Basis: cross_sectional

Fragility

3.79/ 10resilient

Basis: per_ticker

Value

Is IV priced right?

7.5

ExpensiveCheap

Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer

levels.

Risk Checks6/9 checks passed

IV Rank

≤35%

IV Rank 77.1% — elevated vs history

IV/HV Ratio

<1.05x

IV/HV 0.72x — IV ≤ HV

Sector Relative≤50%

Sector percentile 44% — below sector median

Term Structure

<1.1x

Front/Back 0.78x — contango

Skew Normal

<1.25x

Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated

Absolute IV

<80%

ATM IV 51.2% — normal range

Spread-Adjusted Value

<80%

Effective IV 97.1% (ATM 51.2% + spread 22.9% + bias) — expensive

Execution Efficiency

<3.0%

Total drag 35.08% (spread 22.94% + slippage 12.14%) — high friction

Vega Efficiency

≥5.0

Vega efficiency 8.52 (vega 19.541 / spread 22.94%) — efficient

Sentiment

Bullish or bearish?

7.8

BearishBullish

Analyzes

put/call ratios

open interest skew

, and flow direction to determine market bias.

Risk ChecksVery Bullish - Strong signal (Conviction: +36%, Raw: +35%)

Flow Direction

|net sentiment| ≥25%

Conviction-weighted: +36% (strong bullish) — Raw: +35%

OI Skew Magnitude

≥15%

|OI skew| 14.9% — balanced

Volume-OI Alignment

Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%

Vol skew +38.5%, OI skew +14.9% — aligned

Conviction Quality

≥2/3 conditions

0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30

OI Momentum

|change| ≥3%

OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable

Smart Money Flow

|weighted flow| ≥20%

ITM: +5%, ATM: +38%, OTM: +43% — bullish (ITM/ATM aligned)

Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%

Sector P/C percentile 44% — bullish vs sector

Activity

Unusual activity?

3.9

QuietActive

Detects volume surges,

block trades

, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Volume Surge

≥1.5x

Volume 0.7x avg — normal

Turnover Rate

≥15%

Vol/OI 4.9% — normal turnover

Multi-Day Persistence

≥2 days

1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event

OI Build

≥5%

OI change +3.9% (5d) — building

Sector Relative≥60%

Sector activity percentile 66% — active vs sector

Trade Quality

≥30%

Large trade volume 10% — mostly retail

Execution Urgency

≥60%

Aggressive execution 22% — patient

Flow Conviction

≥30

Conviction +36 (bullish) — moderate

Liquidity

Can I trade efficiently?

3.0

IlliquidLiquid

Evaluates

bid-ask spreads

, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.

Risk Checks2/8 checks passed

Tradeable Spread

≤5.0%

Spread 22.9% — wide

Adequate OI

≥10,000

OI 80,621 — deep

Active Volume

≥500

Volume 3,907/day — adequate

Reasonable Cost

≤$0.50

$1.15 to cross — expensive

Strike Coverage

≥5 strikes

0 liquid strikes — limited options

Sector Relative≤40%

Sector spread percentile 66% — wider than sector

Order Book Depth

≥100 contracts

Depth 46.8 contracts (bid:21.7 ask:25.1) — thin

Execution Quality

<1.0%

Avg slippage 12.14% — poor

Timing

Is now a good time?

7.7

RiskyFavorable

Considers earnings proximity,

time decay

, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.

Risk Checks8/9 checks passed

Term Structure Clarity

|slope| ≥5%

Slope -21.6% — contango

IV Percentile Clarity

<30 or >70

IV percentile 77% — seller opportunity

Event Detection

≥10pts kink

IV kink -9.8pts — no clear event

Theta/Vega Clarity

<0.5 or >2.0

θ/ν ratio 144.32 — favors income trades

Expiration Distribution

≥3 expirations

5 liquid expirations — flexible

Event Risk

≥60% (safe)

safe window: No events detected

Spread Momentum

<1.2 ratio

Spread ratio 1.00x — stable

Flow Momentum

≥25% strength + ≥50% consistency

Flow +36% @ 68% consistency — moderate (bullish)

Smart Money Timing

≥40 composite score

Score 40 (ITM 20% + inst 10%) — moderate institutional

Directional Strategy Fit

Option Buyers

Long Calls7.9

bullishIV cheap, bullish flow

Long Puts5.0

bearishIV cheap, bullish flow

Premium Sellers

Cash-Secured Put5.2

bullishIV too cheap, bullish flow

Covered Call3.3

bearishIV too cheap, bullish flow

For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.

The Options Desk tracks the move options price into every US earnings report the week of Aug 31, next to how much each stock has actually moved on its past prints — plus the SPY, QQQ and IWM expected ranges and the gamma walls that box them in.

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