IV is low with bearish flow. No clear edge detected.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 26.1% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.11x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 76% — above sector median
Front/Back 1.01x — flat
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 30.1% — normal range
Effective IV 73.8% (ATM 30.1% + spread 21.8% + bias) — fair
Total drag 26.20% (spread 21.84% + slippage 4.36%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 0.53 (vega 1.160 / spread 21.84%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -15% (bearish) — Raw: -9%
|OI skew| 14.9% — balanced
Vol skew -35.3%, OI skew -14.9% — aligned
0-DTE 33%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: +0%, ATM: -33%, OTM: -5% — bearish (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector P/C percentile 94% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 1.5x avg — normal
Vol/OI 7.9% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change +2.7% (5d) — building
Sector activity percentile 91% — very active vs sector
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 14% — patient
Conviction -15 (bearish) — mixed
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 21.8% — wide
OI 38,437 — adequate
Volume 3,021/day — adequate
$1.09 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 78% — wider than sector
Depth 199.3 contracts (bid:123.5 ask:75.8) — adequate
Avg slippage 4.36% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope +0.7% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 26% — buyer opportunity
IV kink 0.5pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 6.04 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
acceptable: Earnings in 11d
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -15% @ 58% consistency — unclear
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.