IV is low. Conditions favor option buyers.
Is IV priced right?
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV Rank 3.0% — cheap vs history
IV/HV 1.16x — IV premium over HV
Sector percentile 4% — below sector median
Front/Back 0.97x — contango
Put/Call IV 1.16x — elevated
ATM IV 16.6% — normal range
Effective IV 60.2% (ATM 16.6% + spread 21.8% + bias) — good value
Total drag 24.81% (spread 21.81% + slippage 3.00%) — high friction
Vega efficiency 0.18 (vega 0.384 / spread 21.81%) — spread drag
Bullish or bearish?
Analyzes
Conviction-weighted: -85% (strong bearish) — Raw: -78%
|OI skew| 82.1% — call-heavy
Vol skew -17.1%, OI skew +82.1% — divergent (opposite)
0-DTE 0%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
ITM: -100%, ATM: -43%, OTM: +0% — strong bearish (ITM/ATM aligned)
Sector P/C percentile 89% — very bearish vs sector
Unusual activity?
Detects volume surges,
Volume 0.5x avg — normal
Vol/OI 1.5% — normal turnover
Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI change -2.5% (5d) — unwinding
Sector activity percentile 30% — below sector avg
Large trade volume 0% — mostly retail
Aggressive execution 23% — patient
Conviction -85 (bearish) — strong conviction
Can I trade efficiently?
Evaluates
Spread 21.8% — wide
OI 2,797 — thin
Volume 41/day — thin
$1.09 to cross — expensive
0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector spread percentile 21% — tighter than sector
Depth 60.7 contracts (bid:44.1 ask:16.6) — thin
Avg slippage 3.00% — poor
Is now a good time?
Considers earnings proximity,
Slope -3.0% — flat/unclear
IV percentile 3% — buyer opportunity
IV kink -0.0pts — no clear event
θ/ν ratio 5.47 — favors income trades
3 liquid expirations — flexible
safe window: No earnings detected
Spread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow -85% @ 93% consistency — STRONG directional (bearish)
Score 30 (ITM 20% + inst 0%) — retail dominated
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.