EXEExpand Energy Corporation Common Stock
Options Analysis Report•CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
Market Cap $23.0B|NASDAQ
● 2026-04-17$95.82
BEARISH
Analysis: 2026-04-16 EOD data
1Y -6.3%YTD -12.7%7D -3.2%
Options Vol
3,578
30D
Implied Move
±9.3%
IV Rank
27%
EXE Options Overview
bearish flow. No clear edge detected.
REWARDS
RISK ANALYSIS
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Value
Is IV priced right?
6.3
ExpensiveCheap
Measures whether options are cheap, fair, or rich relative to historical and peer
IV
levels.Risk Checks6/9 checks passed
IV Rank
≤35%IV Rank 50.0% — elevated vs history
IV/HV Ratio
<1.05xIV/HV 1.00x — IV ≤ HV
Sector Relative≤50%
Sector percentile 50% — below sector median
Term Structure
<1.1xFront/Back 1.01x — flat
Skew Normal
<1.25xPut/Call IV 1.00x — normal
Absolute IV
<80%ATM IV 0.0% — normal range
Spread-Adjusted Value
<80%Effective IV 18.1% (ATM 0.0% + spread 9.0% + bias) — excellent value
Execution Efficiency
<3.0%Total drag 12.68% (spread 9.04% + slippage 3.64%) — high friction
Vega Efficiency
≥5.0Vega efficiency 0.00 (vega 0.000 / spread 9.04%) — spread drag
Sentiment
Bullish or bearish?
3.1
BearishBullish
Analyzes
put/call ratios
, open interest skew
, and flow direction to determine market bias.Risk ChecksBearish - Moderate signal (Conviction: -10%, Raw: -12%)
Flow Direction
|net sentiment| ≥25%Conviction-weighted: -10% (bearish) — Raw: -12%
OI Skew Magnitude
≥15%|OI skew| 15.8% — put-heavy
Volume-OI Alignment
Same sign, |vol skew| ≥10%Vol skew -31.5%, OI skew -15.8% — aligned
Conviction Quality
≥2/3 conditions0-DTE 4%, far-OTM 15%, avg DTE 30
OI Momentum
|change| ≥3%OI change +0.0% (5d) — stable
Smart Money Flow
|weighted flow| ≥20%ITM: +10%, ATM: -11%, OTM: -13% — neutral (ITM/ATM divergent)
Sector Relative≤40% or ≥60%
Sector P/C percentile 87% — very bearish vs sector
Activity
Unusual activity?
2.8
QuietActive
Detects volume surges,
block trades
, and unusual options activity that may signal moves.Risk Checks1/9 checks passed
Volume Surge
≥1.5xVolume 0.4x avg — normal
Turnover Rate
≥15%Vol/OI 1.9% — normal turnover
Strike Concentration
≥60%Top 3 strikes = 50% — dispersed
Multi-Day Persistence
≥2 days1 day(s) elevated — may be one-day event
OI Build
≥5%OI change +2.0% (5d) — building
Sector Relative≥60%
Sector activity percentile 13% — quiet vs sector
Trade Quality
≥30%Large trade volume 20% — mixed
Execution Urgency
≥60%Aggressive execution 67% — urgent
Flow Conviction
≥30Conviction -10 (bearish) — mixed
Liquidity
Can I trade efficiently?
4.7
IlliquidLiquid
Evaluates
bid-ask spreads
, volume depth, and open interest for trade execution quality.Risk Checks5/8 checks passed
Tradeable Spread
≤5.0%Spread 9.0% — wide
Adequate OI
≥10,000OI 191,847 — deep
Active Volume
≥500Volume 3,578/day — adequate
Reasonable Cost
≤$0.50$0.45 to cross — cheap
Strike Coverage
≥5 strikes0 liquid strikes — limited options
Sector Relative≤40%
Sector spread percentile 0% — much tighter than sector
Order Book Depth
≥100 contractsDepth 166.60000000000002 contracts (bid:80.7 ask:85.9) — adequate
Execution Quality
<1.0%Avg slippage 3.64% — poor
Timing
Is now a good time?
5.9
RiskyFavorable
Considers earnings proximity,
time decay
, and event calendar for optimal entry timing.Risk Checks4/9 checks passed
Term Structure Clarity
|slope| ≥5%Slope +0.9% — flat/unclear
IV Percentile Clarity
<30 or >70IV percentile 50% — neutral
Event Detection
≥10pts kinkIV kink 1.0pts — no clear event
Theta/Vega Clarity
<0.5 or >2.0θ/ν ratio 1.00 — favors mixed
Expiration Distribution
≥3 expirations3 liquid expirations — flexible
Event Risk
≥60% (safe)safe window: Earnings in 18d (low risk)
Spread Momentum
<1.2 ratioSpread ratio 1.00x — stable
Flow Momentum
≥25% strength + ≥50% consistencyFlow -10% @ 55% consistency — unclear
Smart Money Timing
≥40 composite scoreScore 50 (ITM 20% + inst 20%) — moderate institutional
Directional Strategy Fit
Option Buyers
Long Calls4.9
bullishIV cheap, bearish flow
Long Puts6.2
bearishIV cheap, bearish flow
Premium Sellers
Cash-Secured Put4.1
bullishIV too cheap, bearish flow
Covered Call5.4
bearishIV too cheap, bearish flow
For educational purposes only. Not investment advice.